Air Transport Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ATSG Stock  USD 21.90  0.03  0.14%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Air Transport Services on the next trading day is expected to be 22.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.69. Air Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Air Transport's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At this time, Air Transport's Inventory Turnover is most likely to drop in the upcoming years. The Air Transport's current Payables Turnover is estimated to increase to 10.21, while Receivables Turnover is projected to decrease to 9.12. . The Air Transport's current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 239.8 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is projected to decrease to roughly 70.1 M.

Air Transport Cash Forecast

Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Air Transport's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2001-12-31
Previous Quarter
28.7 M
Current Value
44.9 M
Quarterly Volatility
25.3 M
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Air Transport is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Air Transport Services value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Air Transport Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Air Transport Services on the next trading day is expected to be 22.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58, mean absolute percentage error of 0.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.69.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Air Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Air Transport's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Air Transport Stock Forecast Pattern

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Air Transport Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Air Transport's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Air Transport's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.20 and 26.55, respectively. We have considered Air Transport's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.90
22.88
Expected Value
26.55
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Air Transport stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Air Transport stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.4604
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5756
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0302
SAESum of the absolute errors35.6875
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Air Transport Services. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Air Transport. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Air Transport

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Air Transport Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Air Transport's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.2421.8825.52
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.6325.2728.91
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
24.7027.1430.13
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.180.200.22
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Air Transport

For every potential investor in Air, whether a beginner or expert, Air Transport's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Air Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Air. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Air Transport's price trends.

Air Transport Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Air Transport stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Air Transport could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Air Transport by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Air Transport Services Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Air Transport's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Air Transport's current price.

Air Transport Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Air Transport stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Air Transport shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Air Transport stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Air Transport Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Air Transport Risk Indicators

The analysis of Air Transport's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Air Transport's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting air stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Air Transport Services is a strong investment it is important to analyze Air Transport's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Air Transport's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Air Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Air Transport to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Air Freight & Logistics space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Air Transport. If investors know Air will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Air Transport listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.77)
Earnings Share
(0.01)
Revenue Per Share
30.203
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.1)
Return On Assets
0.0149
The market value of Air Transport Services is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Air that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Air Transport's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Air Transport's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Air Transport's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Air Transport's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Air Transport's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Air Transport is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Air Transport's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.