Harley Davidson Stock Price Prediction
| HOG Stock | USD 24.56 0.36 1.49% |
Momentum 30
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.6243 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.2007 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.1539 | Wall Street Target Price 31.2222 |
Using Harley Davidson hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Harley Davidson from the perspective of Harley Davidson response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Harley Davidson using Harley Davidson's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Harley using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Harley Davidson's stock price.
Harley Davidson Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Harley Davidson's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Harley. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Harley Davidson stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 32.7547 | Short Percent 0.1276 | Short Ratio 6.01 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.5 M | 50 Day MA 27.1258 |
Harley Davidson Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Harley Davidson's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Harley. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Harley can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Harley Davidson. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Harley Davidson's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Harley Davidson.
Harley Davidson Implied Volatility | 0.68 |
Harley Davidson's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Harley Davidson stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Harley Davidson's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Harley Davidson stock will not fluctuate a lot when Harley Davidson's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Harley Davidson to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Harley because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Harley Davidson after-hype prediction price | USD 24.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Harley contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Harley Davidson will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0425% per day over the life of the 2025-05-16 option contract. With Harley Davidson trading at USD 24.56, that is roughly USD 0.0104 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Harley Davidson's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Harley Davidson options at the current volatility level of 0.68%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Harley |
Harley Davidson After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Harley Davidson at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Harley Davidson or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Harley Davidson, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Harley Davidson Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Harley Davidson's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Harley Davidson's historical news coverage. Harley Davidson's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.54 and 26.68, respectively. We have considered Harley Davidson's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Harley Davidson is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Harley Davidson is based on 3 months time horizon.
Harley Davidson Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Harley Davidson is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Harley Davidson backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Harley Davidson, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.40 | 2.05 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 11 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.56 | 24.61 | 0.20 |
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Harley Davidson Hype Timeline
On the 15th of March 2025 Harley Davidson is traded for 24.56. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.21. Harley is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 24.61 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.2%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.4%. The volatility of related hype on Harley Davidson is about 389.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.35. The company reported the last year's revenue of 5.19 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 445.18 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.38 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Harley Davidson Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Harley Davidson Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Harley Davidson's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Harley Davidson's future price movements. Getting to know how Harley Davidson's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Harley Davidson may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ALVO | Alvotech | (0.31) | 8 per month | 2.19 | 0.05 | 4.44 | (3.16) | 11.96 | |
| CAH | Cardinal Health | 0.25 | 9 per month | 1.13 | 0.16 | 1.82 | (2.22) | 6.21 | |
| VNO-PL | Vornado Realty Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.95 | 0.1 | 1.94 | (1.64) | 5.23 | |
| TMHC | Taylor Morn Home | (1.24) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.35 | (3.18) | 8.18 | |
| ATHM | Autohome | (1.84) | 7 per month | 1.87 | 0.14 | 3.57 | (3.41) | 8.70 | |
| JYNT | The Joint Corp | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 3.08 | (2.78) | 9.99 |
Harley Davidson Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Harley price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Harley using various technical indicators. When you analyze Harley charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Harley Davidson Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Harley Davidson stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Harley Davidson, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Harley Davidson based on analysis of Harley Davidson hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Harley Davidson's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Harley Davidson's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0151 | 0.0184 | 0.023 | 0.0126 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.07 | 0.9 | 0.76 | 1.43 |
Story Coverage note for Harley Davidson
The number of cover stories for Harley Davidson depends on current market conditions and Harley Davidson's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Harley Davidson is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Harley Davidson's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Harley Davidson Short Properties
Harley Davidson's future price predictability will typically decrease when Harley Davidson's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Harley Davidson often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Harley Davidson's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Harley Davidson's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 132.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 B |
Complementary Tools for Harley Stock analysis
When running Harley Davidson's price analysis, check to measure Harley Davidson's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harley Davidson is operating at the current time. Most of Harley Davidson's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harley Davidson's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harley Davidson's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harley Davidson to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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