OneMain Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

OMF Stock  USD 51.95  0.04  0.08%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of OneMain Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 51.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.31. OneMain Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of OneMain Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
The current Inventory Turnover is estimated to decrease to 0.26. The current Payables Turnover is estimated to decrease to 4.37. The OneMain Holdings' current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to increase to about 134.8 M, while Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is projected to decrease to roughly 551.5 M.

OneMain Holdings Cash Forecast

Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the OneMain Holdings' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2000-12-31
Previous Quarter
1.3 B
Current Value
311 M
Quarterly Volatility
855.7 M
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for OneMain Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of OneMain Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

OneMain Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of OneMain Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 51.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78, mean absolute percentage error of 0.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.31.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OneMain Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OneMain Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

OneMain Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest OneMain HoldingsOneMain Holdings Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

OneMain Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting OneMain Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OneMain Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 48.95 and 53.27, respectively. We have considered OneMain Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
51.95
51.11
Expected Value
53.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OneMain Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OneMain Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.0277
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7756
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0154
SAESum of the absolute errors47.3137
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of OneMain Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict OneMain Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for OneMain Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OneMain Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
49.4851.6453.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
49.0251.1853.34
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
46.4851.0856.70
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.181.221.28
Details

Other Forecasting Options for OneMain Holdings

For every potential investor in OneMain, whether a beginner or expert, OneMain Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OneMain Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OneMain. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OneMain Holdings' price trends.

OneMain Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OneMain Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OneMain Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OneMain Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

OneMain Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of OneMain Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of OneMain Holdings' current price.

OneMain Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OneMain Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OneMain Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OneMain Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OneMain Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

OneMain Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of OneMain Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OneMain Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting onemain stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether OneMain Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze OneMain Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact OneMain Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding OneMain Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OneMain Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in OneMain Stock please use our How to Invest in OneMain Holdings guide.
You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Is Consumer Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of OneMain Holdings. If investors know OneMain will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about OneMain Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.19)
Dividend Share
4.08
Earnings Share
4.56
Revenue Per Share
20.797
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
The market value of OneMain Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of OneMain that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of OneMain Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is OneMain Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because OneMain Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect OneMain Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between OneMain Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if OneMain Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, OneMain Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.