Merchants Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 31.19
| MBIN Stock | USD 36.34 0.60 1.62% |
Merchants |
Merchants Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish below 31.19
The tendency of Merchants Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 31.19 or more in 90 days |
| 36.34 | 90 days | 31.19 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Merchants Bancorp to drop to $ 31.19 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Merchants Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Merchants Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Merchants Bancorp price to stay between $ 31.19 and its current price of $36.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.71 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Merchants Bancorp has a beta of 0.24. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Merchants Bancorp average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Merchants Bancorp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Merchants Bancorp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Merchants Bancorp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Merchants Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merchants Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Merchants Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Merchants Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Merchants Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Merchants Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Merchants Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Merchants Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Merchants Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Merchants Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Merchants Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Merchants Bancorp has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Merchants Bancorp currently holds about 472.79 M in cash with (356.4 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.97. | |
| Merchants Bancorp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 40.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Merchants Bancorp Under Investigation for Potential Securities Law Violations |
Merchants Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Merchants Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Merchants Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merchants Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 584.4 M |
Merchants Bancorp Technical Analysis
Merchants Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Merchants Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Merchants Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Merchants Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Merchants Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
Merchants Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Merchants Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Merchants Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Merchants Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Merchants Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Merchants Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Merchants Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Merchants Bancorp has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Merchants Bancorp currently holds about 472.79 M in cash with (356.4 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.97. | |
| Merchants Bancorp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 40.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Merchants Bancorp Under Investigation for Potential Securities Law Violations |
Check out Merchants Bancorp Backtesting, Merchants Bancorp Valuation, Merchants Bancorp Correlation, Merchants Bancorp Hype Analysis, Merchants Bancorp Volatility, Merchants Bancorp History as well as Merchants Bancorp Performance. To learn how to invest in Merchants Stock, please use our How to Invest in Merchants Bancorp guide.You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Is Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merchants Bancorp. If investors know Merchants will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merchants Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.30) | Dividend Share 0.35 | Earnings Share 6.03 | Revenue Per Share 13.735 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
The market value of Merchants Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merchants that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merchants Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merchants Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merchants Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merchants Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merchants Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Merchants Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merchants Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.