Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 136.42

CHDN Stock  USD 131.98  0.11  0.08%   
Churchill Downs' future price is the expected price of Churchill Downs instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Churchill Downs Incorporated performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Churchill Downs Backtesting, Churchill Downs Valuation, Churchill Downs Correlation, Churchill Downs Hype Analysis, Churchill Downs Volatility, Churchill Downs History as well as Churchill Downs Performance.
  
At this time, Churchill Downs' Price Sales Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 25th of December 2024, Price Fair Value is likely to grow to 11.92, though Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to grow to (5.36). Please specify Churchill Downs' target price for which you would like Churchill Downs odds to be computed.

Churchill Downs Target Price Odds to finish over 136.42

The tendency of Churchill Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 136.42  or more in 90 days
 131.98 90 days 136.42 
about 67.79
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Churchill Downs to move over $ 136.42  or more in 90 days from now is about 67.79 (This Churchill Downs Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of Churchill Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Churchill Downs price to stay between its current price of $ 131.98  and $ 136.42  at the end of the 90-day period is about 27.44 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.02 suggesting Churchill Downs Incorporated market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Churchill Downs is expected to follow. Additionally Churchill Downs Incorporated has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Churchill Downs Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Churchill Downs

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Churchill Downs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Churchill Downs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
130.44131.99133.54
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
124.94126.49145.18
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
131.72144.75160.67
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.431.471.51
Details

Churchill Downs Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Churchill Downs is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Churchill Downs' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Churchill Downs Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Churchill Downs within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.09
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.02
σ
Overall volatility
3.68
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Churchill Downs Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Churchill Downs for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Churchill Downs can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Churchill Downs generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from upi.com: Mixed bag of horse racing events mark pre-holiday excitement

Churchill Downs Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Churchill Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Churchill Downs' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Churchill Downs' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding76.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments144.5 M

Churchill Downs Technical Analysis

Churchill Downs' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Churchill Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Churchill Downs Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing Churchill Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Churchill Downs Predictive Forecast Models

Churchill Downs' time-series forecasting models is one of many Churchill Downs' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Churchill Downs' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Churchill Downs

Checking the ongoing alerts about Churchill Downs for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Churchill Downs help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Churchill Downs generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from upi.com: Mixed bag of horse racing events mark pre-holiday excitement
When determining whether Churchill Downs offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Churchill Downs' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock:
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Churchill Downs. If investors know Churchill will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Churchill Downs listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.089
Dividend Share
0.382
Earnings Share
5.53
Revenue Per Share
35.989
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.098
The market value of Churchill Downs is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Churchill that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Churchill Downs' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Churchill Downs' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Churchill Downs' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Churchill Downs' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Churchill Downs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Churchill Downs is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Churchill Downs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.