Churchill Downs Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| CHDN Stock | USD 114.70 0.42 0.37% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Churchill Downs Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 114.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 82.84. Churchill Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Churchill Downs' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Churchill Downs' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Churchill Downs fundamentals over time.
Churchill |
Open Interest Against 2025-04-17 Churchill Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Churchill Downs' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Churchill Downs' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Churchill Downs stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Churchill Downs' open interest, investors have to compare it to Churchill Downs' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Churchill Downs is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Churchill. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Churchill Downs 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Churchill Downs Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 114.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.43, mean absolute percentage error of 3.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 82.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Churchill Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Churchill Downs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Churchill Downs Stock Forecast Pattern
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Churchill Downs Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Churchill Downs' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Churchill Downs' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 113.53 and 115.72, respectively. We have considered Churchill Downs' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Churchill Downs stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Churchill Downs stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9374 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.1518 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4284 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0113 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 82.845 |
Predictive Modules for Churchill Downs
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Churchill Downs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Churchill Downs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Churchill Downs
For every potential investor in Churchill, whether a beginner or expert, Churchill Downs' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Churchill Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Churchill. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Churchill Downs' price trends.Churchill Downs Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Churchill Downs stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Churchill Downs could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Churchill Downs by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Churchill Downs Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Churchill Downs' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Churchill Downs' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Churchill Downs Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Churchill Downs stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Churchill Downs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Churchill Downs stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Churchill Downs Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 11711.89 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.1963 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 115.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 115.15 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.47) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.42 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 34.09 |
Churchill Downs Risk Indicators
The analysis of Churchill Downs' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Churchill Downs' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting churchill stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9113 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Variance | 1.23 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
When determining whether Churchill Downs offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Churchill Downs' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock: Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Churchill Downs to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Churchill Downs. If investors know Churchill will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Churchill Downs listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.294 | Dividend Share 0.409 | Earnings Share 5.68 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.112 |
The market value of Churchill Downs is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Churchill that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Churchill Downs' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Churchill Downs' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Churchill Downs' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Churchill Downs' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Churchill Downs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Churchill Downs is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Churchill Downs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.