Toll Brothers Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| TOL Stock | USD 164.75 0.59 0.36% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Toll Brothers on the next trading day is expected to be 165.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 173.38. Toll Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Toll Brothers' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Toll Brothers' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Toll Brothers fundamentals over time.
Toll |
Toll Brothers 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Toll Brothers on the next trading day is expected to be 165.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.04, mean absolute percentage error of 16.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 173.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Toll Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Toll Brothers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Toll Brothers Stock Forecast Pattern
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Toll Brothers Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Toll Brothers' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Toll Brothers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 163.46 and 167.27, respectively. We have considered Toll Brothers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Toll Brothers stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Toll Brothers stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.559 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.1317 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.0418 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0198 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 173.3825 |
Predictive Modules for Toll Brothers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Toll Brothers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Toll Brothers
For every potential investor in Toll, whether a beginner or expert, Toll Brothers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Toll Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Toll. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Toll Brothers' price trends.Toll Brothers Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Toll Brothers stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Toll Brothers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Toll Brothers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Toll Brothers Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Toll Brothers' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Toll Brothers' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Toll Brothers Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Toll Brothers stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Toll Brothers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Toll Brothers stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Toll Brothers entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Toll Brothers Risk Indicators
The analysis of Toll Brothers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Toll Brothers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting toll stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Variance | 3.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.17 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Toll Brothers to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Toll Stock please use our How to buy in Toll Stock guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toll Brothers. If investors know Toll will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Toll Brothers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Dividend Share 0.88 | Earnings Share 14.48 | Revenue Per Share 100.231 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.015 |
The market value of Toll Brothers is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Toll that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Toll Brothers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Toll Brothers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Toll Brothers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Toll Brothers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toll Brothers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Toll Brothers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Toll Brothers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.