Toll Brothers Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| TOL Stock | USD 104.89 1.87 1.82% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Toll Brothers is 'Sell'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Toll Brothers' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out Toll Brothers Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more information on how to buy Toll Stock please use our How to buy in Toll Stock guide. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Toll and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Toll Brothers. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in persons.
Toll |
Execute Toll Brothers Buy or Sell Advice
The Toll recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Toll Brothers. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Toll Brothers or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Toll Brothers' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Sell
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Small | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
Toll Brothers Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Toll Brothers generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Toll Brothers is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 24th of January 2025 Toll Brothers paid $ 0.23 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Toll Brothers Announces New Luxury Home Community Coming Soon to Loveland, Colorado |
Toll Brothers Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Toll Brothers' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Toll Brothers' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Toll Brothers daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Toll Brothers price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Toll Brothers returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Toll Brothers.
| Mean Return | -0.55 | Value At Risk | -5.28 | Potential Upside | 3.59 | Standard Deviation | 2.31 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Toll Brothers historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Toll Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Jennison Associates Llc | 2024-12-31 | 1.2 M | Aqr Capital Management Llc | 2024-12-31 | 1.2 M | Norges Bank | 2024-12-31 | 1.2 M | Balyasny Asset Management Llc | 2024-12-31 | 1.1 M | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2024-12-31 | 1.1 M | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2024-12-31 | 1.1 M | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2024-12-31 | 1 M | Lsv Asset Management | 2024-12-31 | 1 M | First Trust Advisors L.p. | 2024-12-31 | 962.5 K | Blackrock Inc | 2024-12-31 | 12.8 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-12-31 | 10.4 M |
Toll Brothers Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (196.2M) | (618.8M) | (22.2M) | (575.7M) | (518.2M) | (492.3M) | |
| Change In Cash | 287.8M | (285.9M) | (54.2M) | 26.1M | 30.0M | 46.6M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 1.2B | 915.1M | 1.2B | 936.5M | 1.1B | 1.1B | |
| Depreciation | 76.3M | 76.8M | 76.5M | 81.2M | 93.4M | 98.1M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 13.1M | 103.2M | (197.3M) | (591.5M) | (532.3M) | (505.7M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 66.9M | 71.7M | 73.0M | 73.6M | 84.7M | 88.9M | |
| Net Income | 833.6M | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.6B | 1.8B | 1.9B | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 1.7B | 1.4B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.6B | 1.7B | |
| Change To Netincome | 1.9B | 36.3M | 124.3M | 171.6M | 197.4M | 187.5M | |
| Dividends Paid | 76.6M | 88.9M | 91.1M | 93.4M | 84.1M | 79.9M | |
| Investments | (18.4M) | (110.0M) | (103.7M) | (167.6M) | (150.9M) | (143.3M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (85.8M) | (561.2M) | (461.4M) | (560.3M) | (504.2M) | (479.0M) |
Toll Brothers Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Toll Brothers or Household Durables sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Toll Brothers' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Toll stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.42 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Toll Brothers Volatility Alert
Toll Brothers exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.53 and kurtosis of 0.56. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Toll Brothers' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Toll Brothers' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Toll Brothers Implied Volatility
Toll Brothers' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Toll Brothers stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Toll Brothers' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Toll Brothers stock will not fluctuate a lot when Toll Brothers' options are near their expiration.
Toll Brothers Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Toll Brothers' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Toll Brothers' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Toll Brothers and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Toll Brothers or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Toll Brothers' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Toll Brothers by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Toll Brothers to competition |
| Fundamentals | Toll Brothers | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.2 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0971 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.14 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.13 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 12.54 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 99.44 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.73 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 91.01 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 3.58 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 5.61 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.31 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.97 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 10.85 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 3.02 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 2.04 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 1.57 B | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.35 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 2.79 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 2.83 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.62 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 4.87 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 77.98 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 1.01 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.78 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 14.51 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.76 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 146.63 | |
| Number Of Employees | 4.9 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.76 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 10.43 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 13.37 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 8.15 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 9.06 B | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by John McLean of 3823 shares of Toll Brothers subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Toll Brothers Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Toll . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Toll Brothers Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Toll Brothers? Buying financial instruments such as Toll Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Check out Toll Brothers Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more information on how to buy Toll Stock please use our How to buy in Toll Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toll Brothers. If investors know Toll will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Toll Brothers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | Dividend Share 0.92 | Earnings Share 14.51 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
The market value of Toll Brothers is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Toll that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Toll Brothers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Toll Brothers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Toll Brothers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Toll Brothers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toll Brothers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Toll Brothers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Toll Brothers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.