AmeriServ Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ASRV Stock | USD 2.83 0.02 0.71% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AmeriServ Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 2.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.02. AmeriServ Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
AmeriServ |
AmeriServ Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AmeriServ Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 2.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AmeriServ Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AmeriServ Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AmeriServ Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
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AmeriServ Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AmeriServ Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AmeriServ Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.36 and 5.30, respectively. We have considered AmeriServ Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AmeriServ Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AmeriServ Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.743 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0046 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0495 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0177 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.02 |
Predictive Modules for AmeriServ Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AmeriServ Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for AmeriServ Financial
For every potential investor in AmeriServ, whether a beginner or expert, AmeriServ Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AmeriServ Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AmeriServ. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AmeriServ Financial's price trends.View AmeriServ Financial Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AmeriServ Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AmeriServ Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AmeriServ Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
AmeriServ Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AmeriServ Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AmeriServ Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AmeriServ Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AmeriServ Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AmeriServ Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of AmeriServ Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AmeriServ Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ameriserv stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Variance | 5.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.47) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for AmeriServ Stock Analysis
When running AmeriServ Financial's price analysis, check to measure AmeriServ Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AmeriServ Financial is operating at the current time. Most of AmeriServ Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AmeriServ Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AmeriServ Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AmeriServ Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.