Toll Brothers (Germany) Volatility
| TLK Stock | EUR 120.45 2.00 1.69% |
Toll Brothers owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0672, which indicates the firm had a -0.0672% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Toll Brothers exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Toll Brothers' Coefficient Of Variation of (1,896), risk adjusted performance of (0.03), and Variance of 6.36 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. Key indicators related to Toll Brothers' volatility include:
360 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 360 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Toll Brothers Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Toll daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Toll's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Toll Brothers volatility.
Toll |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Toll Brothers can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game as hey may decide to buy additional stocks of Toll Brothers at lower prices to lower their average cost per share. Similarly, when the prices of Toll Brothers' stock rise, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities.
Moving together with Toll Stock
Moving against Toll Stock
Toll Brothers Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Toll Brothers' beta coefficient measures the volatility of Toll stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Toll stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Toll Brothers's beta of 1.02 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Toll Brothers stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Toll Brothers exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.88 and kurtosis of 4.14. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Toll Brothers' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Toll Brothers' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Toll Brothers Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Toll Brothers correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Toll Beta |
Toll standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 2.52 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Toll Brothers's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Toll Brothers' daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in toll stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Toll Brothers.
Toll Brothers Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Toll Brothers stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Toll Brothers' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Toll Brothers' stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Toll Brothers' volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Toll Brothers' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Toll Brothers' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Toll Brothers' current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Toll Brothers' to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Toll Brothers Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Toll Brothers Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.0215 . This usually implies Toll Brothers market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Toll Brothers is expected to follow.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Toll Brothers or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Toll Brothers' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Toll stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Toll Brothers has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Toll Brothers Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Toll Brothers Stock Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days horizon the coefficient of variation of Toll Brothers is -1488.61. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 6.33 and standard deviation of 2.52. The mean deviation of Toll Brothers is currently at 1.77. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.79
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.52 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Toll Brothers Stock Return Volatility
Toll Brothers historical daily return volatility represents how much of Toll Brothers stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company shows 2.5153% volatility of returns over 90 . By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.8043% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Toll Brothers Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Toll Brothers or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Toll Brothers may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Toll's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Toll Brothers and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Toll Brothers fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. Toll Brothers, Inc. was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Horsham, Pennsylvania. Toll Brothers operates under Residential Construction classification in Germany and is traded on Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It employs 4900 people.
Toll Brothers' stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Toll Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Toll Brothers' price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Toll Brothers' volatility to invest better
Higher Toll Brothers' stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Toll Brothers stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Toll Brothers stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Toll Brothers investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Toll Brothers' stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Toll Brothers' stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Toll Brothers Investment Opportunity
Toll Brothers has a volatility of 2.52 and is 3.15 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Toll Brothers is lower than 22 percent of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. You can use Toll Brothers to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a large bullish trend. Check odds of Toll Brothers to be traded at €132.5 in 90 days.Weak diversification
The correlation between Toll Brothers and DJI is 0.32 (i.e., Weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Toll Brothers and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Toll Brothers Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Toll Brothers' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Toll Brothers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Toll Brothers stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.13) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | (1,896) | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Variance | 6.36 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.07) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Toll Brothers Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Toll Brothers as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Toll Brothers' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Toll Brothers' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Toll Brothers.
Complementary Tools for Toll Stock analysis
When running Toll Brothers' price analysis, check to measure Toll Brothers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Toll Brothers is operating at the current time. Most of Toll Brothers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Toll Brothers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Toll Brothers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Toll Brothers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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