Toll Brothers (Germany) Price Prediction
| TLK Stock | EUR 120.45 2.00 1.69% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
46
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Toll Brothers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Toll Brothers from the perspective of Toll Brothers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Toll Brothers to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Toll because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Toll Brothers after-hype prediction price | EUR 120.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Toll |
Toll Brothers After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Toll Brothers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Toll Brothers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Toll Brothers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Toll Brothers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Toll Brothers' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Toll Brothers' historical news coverage. Toll Brothers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 117.93 and 122.97, respectively. We have considered Toll Brothers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Toll Brothers is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Toll Brothers is based on 3 months time horizon.
Toll Brothers Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Toll Brothers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Toll Brothers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Toll Brothers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
120.45 | 120.45 | 0.00 |
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Toll Brothers Hype Timeline
Toll Brothers is at this time traded for 120.45on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Toll is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Toll Brothers is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 120.45. About 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.93. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Toll Brothers has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.52. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.71. The firm last dividend was issued on the 5th of January 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be within a week. Check out Toll Brothers Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Toll Stock please use our How to Invest in Toll Brothers guide.Toll Brothers Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Toll Brothers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Toll Brothers' future price movements. Getting to know how Toll Brothers' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Toll Brothers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HO2 | DR Horton | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.44 | (5.16) | 14.54 | |
| LNN0 | LENNAR P B | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.69 | (4.64) | 9.22 | |
| LNN | Lennar | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.11 | (3.71) | 11.42 | |
| NVE | NVR Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.35 | (2.40) | 7.02 | |
| PU7 | PulteGroup | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.63 | (4.72) | 11.97 | |
| TLK | Toll Brothers | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.20 | (4.38) | 16.51 | |
| SUI | Sekisui Chemical Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.10 | 0.04 | 3.57 | (2.04) | 11.67 | |
| 3BAA | BARRATT DEVEL UNSPADR2 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.70 | (2.78) | 13.22 | |
| 3BA | Barratt Developments plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.31 | (3.74) | 12.14 |
Toll Brothers Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Toll price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Toll using various technical indicators. When you analyze Toll charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Toll Brothers Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Toll Brothers stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Toll Brothers, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Toll Brothers based on analysis of Toll Brothers hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Toll Brothers's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Toll Brothers's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Toll Brothers
The number of cover stories for Toll Brothers depends on current market conditions and Toll Brothers' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Toll Brothers is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Toll Brothers' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Toll Brothers Short Properties
Toll Brothers' future price predictability will typically decrease when Toll Brothers' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Toll Brothers often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Toll Brothers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Toll Brothers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 113.3 M |
Complementary Tools for Toll Stock analysis
When running Toll Brothers' price analysis, check to measure Toll Brothers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Toll Brothers is operating at the current time. Most of Toll Brothers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Toll Brothers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Toll Brothers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Toll Brothers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Competition Analyzer Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities | |
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