German American Bancorp Stock Price Prediction
| GABC Stock | USD 39.50 0.23 0.59% |
Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.073 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6817 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.2683 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.67 | Wall Street Target Price 48.1667 |
Using German American hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of German American Bancorp from the perspective of German American response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards German American using German American's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards German using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of German American's stock price.
German American Implied Volatility | 0.79 |
German American's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of German American Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if German American's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that German American stock will not fluctuate a lot when German American's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in German American to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying German because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
German American after-hype prediction price | USD 39.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current German contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that German American Bancorp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0494% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With German American trading at USD 39.5, that is roughly USD 0.0195 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating German American's daily price movement you should consider acquiring German American Bancorp options at the current volatility level of 0.79%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
German |
German American After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of German American at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in German American or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of German American, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
German American Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting German American's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on German American's historical news coverage. German American's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 38.00 and 41.00, respectively. We have considered German American's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
German American is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of German American Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
German American Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as German American is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading German American backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with German American, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.51 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
39.50 | 39.50 | 0.00 |
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German American Hype Timeline
German American Bancorp is currently traded for 39.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. German is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.2%. %. The volatility of related hype on German American is about 18875.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 39.50. About 44.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of German American was currently reported as 24.1. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.43. German American Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 10th of February 2025. The entity had 3:2 split on the 24th of April 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out German American Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.German American Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to German American's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict German American's future price movements. Getting to know how German American's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how German American may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | (0.57) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.14 | (2.73) | 7.77 | |
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp | (2.15) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.59 | (2.97) | 7.73 | |
| FRME | First Merchants | 1.03 | 7 per month | 1.52 | (0) | 2.31 | (2.01) | 7.98 | |
| THFF | First Financial | 1.42 | 9 per month | 1.52 | 0.06 | 2.84 | (2.82) | 7.52 | |
| FCBC | First Community Bancshares | 0.23 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.48 | (2.98) | 9.09 |
German American Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine German price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for German using various technical indicators. When you analyze German charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About German American Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of German American stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as German American Bancorp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of German American based on analysis of German American hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to German American's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to German American's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 1.97 | 1.44 | 2.01 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.23 | 3.82 | 4.69 |
Story Coverage note for German American
The number of cover stories for German American depends on current market conditions and German American's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that German American is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about German American's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
German American Short Properties
German American's future price predictability will typically decrease when German American's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of German American Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential German American's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. German American's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.7 M |
Complementary Tools for German Stock analysis
When running German American's price analysis, check to measure German American's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy German American is operating at the current time. Most of German American's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of German American's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move German American's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of German American to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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