Blackstone Mortgage Trust Stock Price Prediction
| BXMT Stock | USD 20.74 0.32 1.52% |
Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.71) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1803 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.5067 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.7802 | Wall Street Target Price 20.5714 |
Using Blackstone Mortgage hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Blackstone Mortgage Trust from the perspective of Blackstone Mortgage response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Blackstone Mortgage using Blackstone Mortgage's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Blackstone using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Blackstone Mortgage's stock price.
Blackstone Mortgage Short Interest
An investor who is long Blackstone Mortgage may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Blackstone Mortgage and may potentially protect profits, hedge Blackstone Mortgage with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 18.5705 | Short Percent 0.1449 | Short Ratio 10.04 | Shares Short Prior Month 19.5 M | 50 Day MA 19.345 |
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Blackstone Mortgage's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Blackstone. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Blackstone can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Blackstone Mortgage Trust. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Blackstone Mortgage's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Blackstone Mortgage.
Blackstone Mortgage Implied Volatility | 0.47 |
Blackstone Mortgage's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Blackstone Mortgage Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Blackstone Mortgage's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Blackstone Mortgage stock will not fluctuate a lot when Blackstone Mortgage's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Blackstone Mortgage to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Blackstone because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Blackstone Mortgage after-hype prediction price | USD 20.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Blackstone contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Blackstone Mortgage Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0294% per day over the life of the 2025-05-16 option contract. With Blackstone Mortgage trading at USD 20.74, that is roughly USD 0.006092 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Blackstone Mortgage's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Blackstone Mortgage Trust options at the current volatility level of 0.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Blackstone |
Blackstone Mortgage After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Blackstone Mortgage at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Blackstone Mortgage or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Blackstone Mortgage, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Blackstone Mortgage Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Blackstone Mortgage's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Blackstone Mortgage's historical news coverage. Blackstone Mortgage's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.28 and 22.22, respectively. We have considered Blackstone Mortgage's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Blackstone Mortgage is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Blackstone Mortgage Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Blackstone Mortgage Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Blackstone Mortgage is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Blackstone Mortgage backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Blackstone Mortgage, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 1.47 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
20.74 | 20.75 | 0.05 |
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Blackstone Mortgage Hype Timeline
Blackstone Mortgage Trust is currently traded for 20.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Blackstone is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 20.75 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Blackstone Mortgage is about 1600.99%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.76. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 498.53 M. Net Loss for the year was (201.83 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (46.69 M). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Blackstone Mortgage Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Blackstone Mortgage Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Blackstone Mortgage's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Blackstone Mortgage's future price movements. Getting to know how Blackstone Mortgage's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Blackstone Mortgage may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| STWD | Starwood Property Trust | 0.21 | 6 per month | 1.23 | 0.07 | 1.79 | (1.80) | 4.80 | |
| RITM | Rithm Capital Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.00 | 0.17 | 2.01 | (1.69) | 6.50 | |
| AGNC | AGNC Investment Corp | (0.07) | 9 per month | 0.85 | 0.20 | 1.90 | (1.46) | 4.66 | |
| ACRE | Ares Commercial Real | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.99 | (3.89) | 16.02 | |
| ABR | Arbor Realty Trust | (0.32) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.49 | (2.94) | 15.82 | |
| RC | Ready Capital Corp | 0.07 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.34 | (4.10) | 31.28 | |
| TWO | Two Harbors Investments | 0.1 | 10 per month | 1.05 | 0.23 | 2.32 | (1.60) | 10.25 | |
| ARI | Apollo Commercial Real | 0.07 | 8 per month | 1.11 | 0.13 | 2.56 | (1.71) | 11.61 | |
| EARN | Ellington Residential Mortgage | 0.01 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.55 | (2.10) | 5.74 | |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.22 | 0.14 | 2.72 | (2.11) | 12.73 | |
| EFC | Ellington Financial | 0.94 | 8 per month | 1.05 | 0.15 | 1.46 | (1.88) | 12.37 |
Blackstone Mortgage Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Blackstone price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Blackstone using various technical indicators. When you analyze Blackstone charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Blackstone Mortgage Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Blackstone Mortgage stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Blackstone Mortgage Trust, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Blackstone Mortgage based on analysis of Blackstone Mortgage hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Blackstone Mortgage's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Blackstone Mortgage's related companies. | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.12 | 0.13 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.75 | 6.07 |
Story Coverage note for Blackstone Mortgage
The number of cover stories for Blackstone Mortgage depends on current market conditions and Blackstone Mortgage's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Blackstone Mortgage is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Blackstone Mortgage's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Blackstone Mortgage Short Properties
Blackstone Mortgage's future price predictability will typically decrease when Blackstone Mortgage's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Blackstone Mortgage Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Blackstone Mortgage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Blackstone Mortgage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 173.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 323.5 M |
Additional Tools for Blackstone Stock Analysis
When running Blackstone Mortgage's price analysis, check to measure Blackstone Mortgage's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blackstone Mortgage is operating at the current time. Most of Blackstone Mortgage's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blackstone Mortgage's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blackstone Mortgage's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blackstone Mortgage to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.