Blackstone Mortgage Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BXMT Stock | USD 18.94 0.07 0.37% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Blackstone Mortgage Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 19.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.27. Blackstone Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Blackstone Mortgage's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1991-03-31 | Previous Quarter 373.9 M | Current Value 322.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 159.6 M |
Blackstone Mortgage Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Blackstone Mortgage Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 19.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Blackstone Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Blackstone Mortgage's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Blackstone Mortgage Stock Forecast Pattern
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Blackstone Mortgage Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Blackstone Mortgage's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Blackstone Mortgage's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.69 and 20.47, respectively. We have considered Blackstone Mortgage's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Blackstone Mortgage stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Blackstone Mortgage stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.161 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3159 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.017 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.2714 |
Predictive Modules for Blackstone Mortgage
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Blackstone Mortgage Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Blackstone Mortgage
For every potential investor in Blackstone, whether a beginner or expert, Blackstone Mortgage's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Blackstone Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Blackstone. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Blackstone Mortgage's price trends.Blackstone Mortgage Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Blackstone Mortgage stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Blackstone Mortgage could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Blackstone Mortgage by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Blackstone Mortgage's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Blackstone Mortgage's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Blackstone Mortgage Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Blackstone Mortgage stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Blackstone Mortgage shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Blackstone Mortgage stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Blackstone Mortgage Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Blackstone Mortgage Risk Indicators
The analysis of Blackstone Mortgage's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Blackstone Mortgage's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting blackstone stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Variance | 1.93 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.13) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Blackstone Stock Analysis
When running Blackstone Mortgage's price analysis, check to measure Blackstone Mortgage's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blackstone Mortgage is operating at the current time. Most of Blackstone Mortgage's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blackstone Mortgage's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blackstone Mortgage's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blackstone Mortgage to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.