Alaska Air Group Stock Price Prediction
| ALK Stock | USD 52.60 0.08 0.15% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
73
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.704 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.63 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.2666 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.2725 | Wall Street Target Price 61.1193 |
Using Alaska Air hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alaska Air Group from the perspective of Alaska Air response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Alaska Air Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alaska Air's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alaska. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alaska can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alaska Air Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alaska Air's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alaska Air.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alaska Air to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alaska because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Alaska Air after-hype prediction price | USD 53.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Alaska |
Alaska Air After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alaska Air at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alaska Air or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alaska Air, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alaska Air Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alaska Air's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alaska Air's historical news coverage. Alaska Air's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.15 and 55.35, respectively. We have considered Alaska Air's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alaska Air is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alaska Air Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alaska Air Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alaska Air is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alaska Air backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alaska Air, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.63 | 2.10 | 0.65 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
52.60 | 53.25 | 1.24 |
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Alaska Air Hype Timeline
On the 30th of November Alaska Air Group is traded for 52.60. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.65, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Alaska is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 53.25 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 1.24%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.63%. The volatility of related hype on Alaska Air is about 6461.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 52.58. The company reported the last year's revenue of 10.43 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 235 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.36 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Alaska Air Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Alaska Air Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alaska Air's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alaska Air's future price movements. Getting to know how Alaska Air's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alaska Air may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CP | Canadian Pacific Railway | (0.94) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.99 | (1.78) | 5.87 | |
| WERN | Werner Enterprises | 0.42 | 9 per month | 1.31 | 0.01 | 2.80 | (2.37) | 10.67 | |
| CNI | Canadian National Railway | 0.31 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 1.87 | (1.72) | 5.28 | |
| CSX | CSX Corporation | 0.08 | 10 per month | 1.82 | 0.01 | 2.21 | (2.44) | 12.00 |
Alaska Air Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alaska price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alaska using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alaska charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Alaska Air Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Alaska Air stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alaska Air Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alaska Air based on analysis of Alaska Air hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alaska Air's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alaska Air's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.008062 | 0.007658 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.48 | 0.47 |
Story Coverage note for Alaska Air
The number of cover stories for Alaska Air depends on current market conditions and Alaska Air's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alaska Air is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alaska Air's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alaska Air Short Properties
Alaska Air's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alaska Air's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alaska Air Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alaska Air's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alaska Air's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 128.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 B |
Check out Alaska Air Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Passenger Airlines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alaska Air. If investors know Alaska will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alaska Air listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.704 | Earnings Share 2.51 | Revenue Per Share 85.034 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.082 | Return On Assets 0.0286 |
The market value of Alaska Air Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alaska that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alaska Air's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alaska Air's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alaska Air's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alaska Air's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alaska Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alaska Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alaska Air's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.