Alaska Air Group Stock Beneish M Score

ALK Stock  USD 75.74  3.20  4.41%   
This module uses fundamental data of Alaska Air to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Alaska Air M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Check out Alaska Air Piotroski F Score and Alaska Air Altman Z Score analysis.
  
At this time, Alaska Air's Debt To Assets are quite stable compared to the past year. Long Term Debt To Capitalization is expected to rise to 0.52 this year, although the value of Net Debt To EBITDA will most likely fall to 3.35. At this time, Alaska Air's ROIC is quite stable compared to the past year. Net Income Per Share is expected to rise to 3.29 this year, although the value of PTB Ratio will most likely fall to 1.26.
At this time, it appears that Alaska Air Group is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Alaska Air's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Alaska Air executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Alaska Air's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.61
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables

1.0

Focus
Asset Quality

0.99

Focus
Expense Coverage

0.9

Focus
Gross Margin Strengs

1.05

Focus
Accruals Factor

0.9

Focus
Depreciation Resistance

1.0

Focus
Net Sales Growth

1.05

Focus
Financial Leverage Condition

1.0

Focus

Alaska Air Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Alaska Air's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Net Receivables585.9 M558 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Revenue12.3 B11.7 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Assets20.8 B19.8 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Current Assets3.9 B3.8 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Non Current Assets Total16.8 B16 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Property Plant Equipment10.7 B10.1 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Depreciation And Amortization612.1 M583 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Selling General Administrative336.5 M354.2 M
Notably Down
Pretty Stable
Total Current Liabilities6.5 B6.1 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Non Current Liabilities Total9.7 B9.3 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Short Term Debt689.9 M657 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Long Term Debt1.4 B2.2 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Short Term InvestmentsB1.3 B
Significantly Down
Slightly volatile
Long Term Investments1.7 M1.8 M
Notably Down
Slightly volatile

Alaska Air Group Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Alaska Air's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Alaska Air in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Alaska Air's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Alaska Air Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Other Operating Expenses

11.72 Billion

At this time, Alaska Air's Other Operating Expenses is quite stable compared to the past year.

Alaska Air Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Alaska Air. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
202020212022202320242025 (projected)
Net Receivables480M546M296M383M558M585.9M
Total Revenue3.6B6.2B9.6B10.4B11.7B12.3B
Total Assets14.0B14.0B14.3B15.8B19.8B20.8B
Total Current Assets4.0B3.9B3.0B2.7B3.8B3.9B
Net Debt3.0B3.7B3.6B3.5B5.2B5.5B
Short Term Debt504M1.4B634M511M657M689.9M
Long Term Debt1.3B2.4B2.2B1.9B2.2B1.4B
Operating Income(1.8B)341M338M394M570M598.5M
Investments(644M)(1.0B)(1.2B)(1.1B)(1.0B)(974.7M)
Gross Profit Margin(0.12)0.220.170.240.940.99

Alaska Air ESG Sustainability

Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Alaska Air's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Alaska Air's managers, analysts, and investors.
Environmental
Governance
Social

About Alaska Air Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Alaska Air Group's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Alaska Air using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alaska Air Group based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

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When determining whether Alaska Air Group is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Alaska Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Alaska Air Group Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Alaska Air Group Stock:
Is Passenger Airlines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alaska Air. If investors know Alaska will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alaska Air listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.704
Earnings Share
3.08
Revenue Per Share
93.035
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.384
Return On Assets
0.0323
The market value of Alaska Air Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alaska that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alaska Air's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alaska Air's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alaska Air's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alaska Air's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alaska Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alaska Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alaska Air's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.