Toll Brothers (Germany) Market Value
| TLK Stock | EUR 120.45 2.00 1.69% |
| Symbol | Toll |
Toll Brothers 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Toll Brothers' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Toll Brothers.
| 11/23/2024 |
| 12/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Toll Brothers on November 23, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Toll Brothers or generate 0.0% return on investment in Toll Brothers over 30 days. Toll Brothers is related to or competes with DR Horton, LENNAR P, Lennar, NVR, PulteGroup, Sekisui Chemical, and BARRATT DEVEL. Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for detached ... More
Toll Brothers Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Toll Brothers' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Toll Brothers upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.51 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.38) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.2 |
Toll Brothers Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Toll Brothers' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Toll Brothers' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Toll Brothers historical prices to predict the future Toll Brothers' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.15) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.22) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.35) |
Toll Brothers Backtested Returns
Toll Brothers owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0672, which indicates the firm had a -0.0672% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Toll Brothers exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Toll Brothers' Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03), coefficient of variation of (1,896), and Variance of 6.36 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.41, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Toll Brothers' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Toll Brothers is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Toll Brothers has a negative expected return of -0.17%. Please make sure to validate Toll Brothers' maximum drawdown, kurtosis, day median price, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and daily balance of power , to decide if Toll Brothers performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.76 |
Good predictability
Toll Brothers has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Toll Brothers time series from 23rd of November 2024 to 8th of December 2024 and 8th of December 2024 to 23rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Toll Brothers price movement. The serial correlation of 0.76 indicates that around 76.0% of current Toll Brothers price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.76 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.84 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 71.01 |
Toll Brothers lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Toll Brothers stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Toll Brothers' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Toll Brothers returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Toll Brothers has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Toll Brothers regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Toll Brothers stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Toll Brothers stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Toll Brothers stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Toll Brothers Lagged Returns
When evaluating Toll Brothers' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Toll Brothers stock have on its future price. Toll Brothers autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Toll Brothers autocorrelation shows the relationship between Toll Brothers stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Toll Brothers.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Toll Stock
When determining whether Toll Brothers is a strong investment it is important to analyze Toll Brothers' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Toll Brothers' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Toll Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Toll Brothers Correlation, Toll Brothers Volatility and Toll Brothers Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Toll Brothers. For more detail on how to invest in Toll Stock please use our How to Invest in Toll Brothers guide.You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Toll Brothers technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.