Murphy Oil Stock Market Value
| MUR Stock | USD 26.04 1.16 4.66% |
| Symbol | Murphy |
Murphy Oil Price To Book Ratio
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Murphy Oil. If investors know Murphy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Murphy Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.54) | Dividend Share 1.2 | Earnings Share 2.72 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.20) |
The market value of Murphy Oil is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Murphy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Murphy Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Murphy Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Murphy Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Murphy Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Murphy Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Murphy Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Murphy Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Murphy Oil 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Murphy Oil's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Murphy Oil.
| 12/15/2024 |
| 03/15/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Murphy Oil on December 15, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Murphy Oil or generate 0.0% return on investment in Murphy Oil over 90 days. Murphy Oil is related to or competes with Matador Resources, Civitas Resources, Magnolia Oil, SM Energy, Range Resources, EOG Resources, and APA. Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production co... More
Murphy Oil Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Murphy Oil's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Murphy Oil upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.19 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.03) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.55 |
Murphy Oil Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Murphy Oil's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Murphy Oil's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Murphy Oil historical prices to predict the future Murphy Oil's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.11) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.29) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0655 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.15) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Murphy Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Murphy Oil Backtested Returns
Murphy Oil has Sharpe Ratio of -0.068, which conveys that the firm had a -0.068 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Murphy Oil exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Murphy Oil's Mean Deviation of 1.75, standard deviation of 2.34, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.11) to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.29, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Murphy Oil's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Murphy Oil is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Murphy Oil has a negative expected return of -0.16%. Please make sure to verify Murphy Oil's total risk alpha, accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the Accumulation Distribution and period momentum indicator , to decide if Murphy Oil performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.29 |
Poor predictability
Murphy Oil has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Murphy Oil time series from 15th of December 2024 to 29th of January 2025 and 29th of January 2025 to 15th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Murphy Oil price movement. The serial correlation of 0.29 indicates that nearly 29.0% of current Murphy Oil price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.29 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.22 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.83 |
Murphy Oil lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Murphy Oil stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Murphy Oil's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Murphy Oil returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Murphy Oil has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Murphy Oil regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Murphy Oil stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Murphy Oil stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Murphy Oil stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Murphy Oil Lagged Returns
When evaluating Murphy Oil's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Murphy Oil stock have on its future price. Murphy Oil autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Murphy Oil autocorrelation shows the relationship between Murphy Oil stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Murphy Oil.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Murphy Oil
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Murphy Oil position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Murphy Oil will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Murphy Stock
Moving against Murphy Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Murphy Oil could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Murphy Oil when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Murphy Oil - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Murphy Oil to buy it.
The correlation of Murphy Oil is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Murphy Oil moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Murphy Oil moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Murphy Oil can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Murphy Stock Analysis
When running Murphy Oil's price analysis, check to measure Murphy Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Murphy Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Murphy Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Murphy Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Murphy Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Murphy Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.