First Watch Restaurant Stock Market Value
| FWRG Stock | USD 16.49 0.07 0.43% |
| Symbol | First |
First Watch Restaurant Price To Book Ratio
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Watch. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Watch listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.75) | Earnings Share 0.3 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.076 | Return On Assets |
The market value of First Watch Restaurant is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Watch's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Watch's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Watch's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Watch's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Watch's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Watch is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Watch's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
First Watch 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Watch's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Watch.
| 12/15/2024 |
| 03/15/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Watch on December 15, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Watch Restaurant or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Watch over 90 days. First Watch is related to or competes with Dine Brands, Bloomin Brands, BJs Restaurants, Cheesecake Factory, Brinker International, Dennys Corp, and Papa Johns. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name More
First Watch Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Watch's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Watch Restaurant upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.88 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.79) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.48 |
First Watch Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Watch's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Watch's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Watch historical prices to predict the future First Watch's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1651 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.15) |
First Watch Restaurant Backtested Returns
First Watch Restaurant secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0848, which denotes the company had a -0.0848 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. First Watch Restaurant exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm First Watch's Standard Deviation of 2.97, variance of 8.83, and Mean Deviation of 2.23 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.41, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, First Watch will likely underperform. At this point, First Watch Restaurant has a negative expected return of -0.26%. Please make sure to confirm First Watch's treynor ratio, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the Kurtosis and day typical price , to decide if First Watch Restaurant performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.6 |
Good reverse predictability
First Watch Restaurant has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Watch time series from 15th of December 2024 to 29th of January 2025 and 29th of January 2025 to 15th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Watch Restaurant price movement. The serial correlation of -0.6 indicates that roughly 60.0% of current First Watch price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.6 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.03 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.32 |
First Watch Restaurant lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Watch stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Watch's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Watch returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Watch has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Watch regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Watch stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Watch stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Watch stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Watch Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Watch's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Watch stock have on its future price. First Watch autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Watch autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Watch stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Watch Restaurant.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether First Watch Restaurant is a strong investment it is important to analyze First Watch's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact First Watch's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding First Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out First Watch Correlation, First Watch Volatility and First Watch Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on First Watch. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
First Watch technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.