First Watch Restaurant Stock Performance
| FWRG Stock | USD 17.46 1.12 6.85% |
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.46, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, First Watch will likely underperform. At this point, First Watch Restaurant has a negative expected return of -0.0967%. Please make sure to confirm First Watch's total risk alpha, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the Kurtosis and day typical price , to decide if First Watch Restaurant performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Very Weak
Weak | Strong |
Over the last 90 days First Watch Restaurant has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite nearly stable basic indicators, First Watch is not utilizing all of its potentials. The current stock price disturbance, may contribute to mid-run losses for the stockholders. ...more
Actual Historical Performance (%)
One Day Return 6.85 | Five Day Return 7.38 | Year To Date Return (7.08) | Ten Year Return (21.10) | All Time Return (21.10) |
1 | First Watch Restaurant Group Inc Trading Down 3.15 percent on Jan 8 | 01/08/2025 |
2 | First Watch Restaurant Group Inc Trading Down 4.41 percent on Feb 19 | 02/19/2025 |
3 | Analysts Set First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Price Target at 23.30 - MarketBeat | 03/07/2025 |
4 | First Watch Earnings What To Look For From FWRG | 03/10/2025 |
5 | First Watchs Q4 Earnings Results Revenue In Line With Expectations | 03/11/2025 |
6 | Is It Too Late To Consider Buying First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. | 03/12/2025 |
7 | Acquisition by Matt Eisenacher of 21315 shares of First Watch subject to Rule 16b-3 | 03/13/2025 |
8 | Disposition of 3675 shares by Laura Sorensen of First Watch at 16.81 subject to Rule 16b-3 | 03/19/2025 |
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 50 M |
First |
First Watch Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you would invest 1,903 in First Watch Restaurant on December 25, 2024 and sell it today you would lose (157.00) from holding First Watch Restaurant or give up 8.25% of portfolio value over 90 days. First Watch Restaurant is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 3.173% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 28% of stocks are less volatile than First, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon. Expected Return |
| Risk |
First Watch Market Risk Analysis
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Watch's investment risk. Standard deviation is the most common way to measure market volatility of stocks, such as First Watch Restaurant, and traders can use it to determine the average amount a First Watch's price has deviated from the expected return over a period of time. It is calculated by determining the expected price for the established period and then subtracting this figure from each price point. The differences are then squared, summed, and averaged to produce the variance.
Sharpe Ratio = -0.0305
| Best Portfolio | Best Equity | |||
| Good Returns | ||||
| Average Returns | ||||
| Small Returns | ||||
| Cash | Small Risk | Average Risk | High Risk | Huge Risk |
| Negative Returns | FWRG |
Estimated Market Risk
| 3.17 actual daily | 28 72% of assets are more volatile |
Expected Return
| -0.1 actual daily | 0 Most of other assets have higher returns |
Risk-Adjusted Return
| -0.03 actual daily | 0 Most of other assets perform better |
Based on monthly moving average First Watch is not performing at its full potential. However, if added to a well diversified portfolio the total return can be enhanced and market risk can be reduced. You can increase risk-adjusted return of First Watch by adding First Watch to a well-diversified portfolio.
First Watch Fundamentals Growth
First Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of First Watch, and First Watch fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on First Stock performance.
| Return On Equity | 0.0327 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 0.0199 | ||||
| Profit Margin | 0.02 % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.02 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 1.77 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 60.7 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 282.50 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 1.67 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 0.98 X | ||||
| Revenue | 1.02 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 223.11 M | ||||
| EBITDA | 98.38 M | ||||
| Net Income | 18.93 M | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 53.57 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 0.91 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 620.51 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 0.95 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 0.75 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 9.81 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 115.67 M | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | 0.30 X | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 991.84 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 1.51 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (53.82 M) | ||||
| Working Capital | (82.6 M) | ||||
About First Watch Performance
By analyzing First Watch's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into First Watch's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if First Watch has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if First Watch has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Days Of Inventory On Hand | 2.52 | 3.21 | |
| Return On Tangible Assets | 0.03 | 0.03 | |
| Return On Capital Employed | 0.03 | 0.03 | |
| Return On Assets | 0.02 | 0.02 | |
| Return On Equity | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Things to note about First Watch Restaurant performance evaluation
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Watch for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for First Watch Restaurant help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First Watch generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| First Watch has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| First Watch has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| First Watch Restaurant currently holds 620.51 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.95, which is about average as compared to similar companies. First Watch Restaurant has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about First Watch's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 98.0% of First Watch shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Disposition of 3675 shares by Laura Sorensen of First Watch at 16.81 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
- Analyzing First Watch's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
- Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether First Watch's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
- Examining First Watch's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
- Evaluating First Watch's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of First Watch's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
- Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of First Watch's stock. These opinions can provide insight into First Watch's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Watch's price analysis, check to measure First Watch's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Watch is operating at the current time. Most of First Watch's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Watch's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Watch's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Watch to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Sectors List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities | |
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Stocks Directory Find actively traded stocks across global markets | |
| Fundamentals Comparison Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities | |
| Alpha Finder Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk | |
| Commodity Channel Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum |