First Northern Community Stock Market Value
| FNRN Stock | USD 9.86 0.14 1.40% |
| Symbol | First |
First Northern 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Northern's otc stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Northern.
| 12/09/2023 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Northern on December 9, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Northern Community or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Northern over 360 days. First Northern is related to or competes with Community West, Home Bancorp, CB Financial, Civista Bancshares, First Financial, ESSA Bancorp, and Southern States. First Northern Community Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for First Northern Bank of Dixon that provides com... More
First Northern Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Northern's otc stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Northern Community upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.31) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.07 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.40) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.303 |
First Northern Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Northern's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Northern's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Northern historical prices to predict the future First Northern's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.10) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.18) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.55) |
First Northern Community Backtested Returns
First Northern Community secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.11, which denotes the company had a -0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. First Northern Community exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm First Northern's Standard Deviation of 0.6459, mean deviation of 0.2953, and Variance of 0.4172 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.16, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, First Northern's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First Northern is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, First Northern Community has a negative expected return of -0.0751%. Please make sure to confirm First Northern's treynor ratio, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the Kurtosis and day typical price , to decide if First Northern Community performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.70 |
Good predictability
First Northern Community has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Northern time series from 9th of December 2023 to 6th of June 2024 and 6th of June 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Northern Community price movement. The serial correlation of 0.7 indicates that around 70.0% of current First Northern price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.7 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.75 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.29 |
First Northern Community lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Northern otc stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Northern's otc stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Northern returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Northern has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the otc stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Northern regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Northern otc stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Northern otc stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Northern otc stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Northern Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Northern's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Northern otc stock have on its future price. First Northern autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Northern autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Northern otc stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Northern Community.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with First Northern
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if First Northern position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in First Northern will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with First OTC Stock
Moving against First OTC Stock
| 0.83 | BAC | Bank of America Fiscal Year End 10th of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.81 | JPM | JPMorgan Chase Fiscal Year End 10th of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | AA | Alcoa Corp Fiscal Year End 15th of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | PTAIF | PT Astra International | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | TRV | The Travelers Companies Fiscal Year End 17th of January 2025 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to First Northern could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace First Northern when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back First Northern - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling First Northern Community to buy it.
The correlation of First Northern is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as First Northern moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if First Northern Community moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for First Northern can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in First OTC Stock
First Northern financial ratios help investors to determine whether First OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Northern security.