Fossil Group Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| FOSL Stock | USD 1.81 0.10 5.85% |
Fossil | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Fossil Group Company odds of financial distress Analysis
Fossil's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Fossil Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 32% |
Most of Fossil's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Fossil Group is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Fossil probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Fossil odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Fossil Group financial health.
Is Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fossil. If investors know Fossil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fossil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Earnings Share (2.33) | Revenue Per Share 23.195 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) | Return On Assets (0.04) |
The market value of Fossil Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fossil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fossil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fossil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fossil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fossil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fossil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fossil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fossil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Fossil Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Fossil is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Fossil Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Fossil's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Fossil's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Fossil's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Fossil Group has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 32.0%. This is 22.69% lower than that of the Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods sector and 9.07% lower than that of the Consumer Discretionary industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 19.66% higher than that of the company.
Fossil Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Fossil's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Fossil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fossil by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Fossil is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among its peers.
Fossil Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | -0.56 | ||||
| Return On Asset | -0.0419 | ||||
| Profit Margin | (0.10) % | ||||
| Operating Margin | (0.06) % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 326.75 M | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 53.19 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 11.64 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 37.42 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.62 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 21.04 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 0.59 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 0.08 X | ||||
| Revenue | 1.41 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 830.68 M | ||||
| EBITDA | (115.26 M) | ||||
| Net Income | (157.09 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 162.61 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 3.14 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 388.67 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 1.27 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 2.37 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 3.09 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | (59.46 M) | ||||
| Short Ratio | 5.74 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (2.33) X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | (4.34) X | ||||
| Target Price | 7.0 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 6.1 K | ||||
| Beta | 2.19 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 63.83 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 978.03 M | ||||
| Retained Earnings | 18.4 M | ||||
| Working Capital | 368.21 M | ||||
| Current Asset | 269.52 M | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 106.24 M | ||||
| Net Asset | 978.03 M |
About Fossil Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Fossil Group's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Fossil using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Fossil Group based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Fossil Piotroski F Score and Fossil Altman Z Score analysis. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Is Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fossil. If investors know Fossil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fossil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Earnings Share (2.33) | Revenue Per Share 23.195 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) | Return On Assets (0.04) |
The market value of Fossil Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fossil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fossil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fossil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fossil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fossil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fossil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fossil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fossil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.