Fossil Group Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| FOSL Stock | USD 1.73 0.11 6.79% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Fossil Group is 'Strong Sell'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Fossil's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out Fossil Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Fossil and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Fossil Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state.
Fossil |
Execute Fossil Buy or Sell Advice
The Fossil recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Fossil Group. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Fossil Group or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Fossil's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Sell
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Dangerous | Details | |
Hype Condition | Over hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Moves indifferently to market moves | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Sell | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Poor | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Fossil Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Fossil Group is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Fossil Group may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Fossil Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.41 B. Net Loss for the year was (157.09 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 830.68 M. | |
| Fossil Group currently holds about 162.61 M in cash with (59.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.14, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Fossil Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Fossil Group announces Michael Kors partnership agreement extension |
Fossil Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Fossil's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Fossil's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Fossil daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Fossil Group price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Fossil returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Fossil.
| Mean Return | 0.93 | Value At Risk | -7.57 | Potential Upside | 10.08 | Standard Deviation | 9.01 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Fossil historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Fossil Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Millennium Management Llc | 2024-09-30 | 344.3 K | Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder Advisers, Llc | 2024-12-31 | 330.7 K | Rbf Llc | 2024-09-30 | 289.7 K | Susquehanna International Group, Llp | 2024-09-30 | 220.5 K | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2024-12-31 | 203.1 K | State Street Corp | 2024-09-30 | 181.8 K | Citadel Advisors Llc | 2024-09-30 | 147 K | Connor Clark & Lunn Inv Mgmt Ltd | 2024-12-31 | 121.3 K | Jane Street Group Llc | 2024-09-30 | 114.1 K | Ameriprise Financial Inc | 2024-09-30 | 2.3 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-12-31 | 2.2 M |
Fossil Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | 168.6M | (62.3M) | (46.0M) | 125.8M | 144.6M | 151.9M | |
| Change In Cash | 116.5M | (59.7M) | (60.5M) | (82.5M) | (74.2M) | (70.5M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 90.5M | 39.7M | (124.1M) | (69.4M) | (79.8M) | (75.8M) | |
| Depreciation | 43.1M | 29.6M | 23.3M | 19.1M | 22.0M | 39.2M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 126.2M | 109.1M | 97.7M | 72.1M | 82.9M | 87.0M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 10.7M | 10.3M | 13.3M | 9.9M | 11.4M | 10.8M | |
| Net Income | (95.9M) | 26.6M | (43.5M) | (157.1M) | (141.4M) | (134.3M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 324.2M | 264.6M | 204.1M | 121.6M | 139.8M | 195.3M | |
| Change To Netincome | 12.7M | 55.5M | 47.8M | 32.4M | 37.3M | 47.6M | |
| Investments | (10.6M) | 7.1M | (8.6M) | (9.9M) | (8.9M) | (8.4M) | |
| Change Receivables | 30.9M | 60.7M | (35.5M) | 41.6M | 47.9M | 50.3M | |
| Net Borrowings | (185.2M) | 21.5M | (99.7M) | 71.9M | 64.7M | 67.9M |
Fossil Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Fossil or Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Fossil's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Fossil stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.92 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.10 |
Fossil Volatility Alert
Fossil Group is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Fossil's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Fossil's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Fossil Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Fossil's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Fossil's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Fossil and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Fossil or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Fossil's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fossil by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Fossil to competition |
| Fundamentals | Fossil | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.56 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.0419 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.10) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | (0.06) % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 322.5 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 53.19 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 11.64 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 37.42 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.94 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 21.04 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 0.56 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.08 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.41 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 830.68 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (115.26 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (157.09 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 162.61 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 3.14 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 388.67 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 1.27 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 2.37 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 3.09 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | (59.46 M) | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 5.74 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (2.33) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | (4.34) X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 7.0 | |
| Number Of Employees | 6.1 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 2.19 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 63.83 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 978.03 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 18.4 M | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 368.21 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by Sunil Doshi of 24519 shares of Fossil subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Fossil Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Fossil . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Fossil Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Fossil Group? Buying financial instruments such as Fossil Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Check out Fossil Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Is Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fossil. If investors know Fossil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fossil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Earnings Share (2.33) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Fossil Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fossil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fossil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fossil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fossil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fossil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fossil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fossil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fossil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.