Valero Energy Stock Price Prediction
| VLO Stock | USD 129.14 3.34 2.66% |
Momentum 41
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.75) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0797 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.5408 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.0689 | Wall Street Target Price 149.1758 |
Using Valero Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Valero Energy from the perspective of Valero Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Valero Energy using Valero Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Valero using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Valero Energy's stock price.
Valero Energy Short Interest
An investor who is long Valero Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Valero Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Valero Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 139.43 | Short Percent 0.0396 | Short Ratio 3.85 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.4 M | 50 Day MA 132.47 |
Valero Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Valero Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Valero. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Valero can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Valero Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Valero Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Valero Energy.
Valero Energy Implied Volatility | 0.48 |
Valero Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Valero Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Valero Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Valero Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Valero Energy's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Valero Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Valero because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Valero Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 128.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Valero contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Valero Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.03% per day over the life of the 2025-06-20 option contract. With Valero Energy trading at USD 129.14, that is roughly USD 0.0387 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Valero Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Valero Energy options at the current volatility level of 0.48%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Valero |
Valero Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Valero Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Valero Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Valero Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Valero Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Valero Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Valero Energy's historical news coverage. Valero Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 126.59 and 130.93, respectively. We have considered Valero Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Valero Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Valero Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Valero Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Valero Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Valero Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Valero Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 2.17 | 0.38 | 0.06 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
129.14 | 128.76 | 0.29 |
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Valero Energy Hype Timeline
On the 16th of March 2025 Valero Energy is traded for 129.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.38, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Valero is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 128.76. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 51.67%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.29%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Valero Energy is about 335.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 129.20. About 85.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.66. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Valero Energy has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.21. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.58. The firm last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2025. Valero Energy had 1094:1000 split on the 2nd of May 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Valero Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Valero Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Valero Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Valero Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Valero Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Valero Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PSX | Phillips 66 | 3.62 | 8 per month | 1.92 | 0.06 | 3.44 | (3.43) | 8.50 | |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corp | (1.96) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.90 | (4.79) | 12.94 | |
| PBF | PBF Energy | 0.66 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.14 | (5.39) | 22.28 | |
| CVI | CVR Energy | (0.81) | 9 per month | 2.69 | 0.06 | 5.02 | (4.18) | 12.26 | |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corp | 3.44 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 3.15 | (3.75) | 12.00 | |
| SUN | Sunoco LP | 0.20 | 11 per month | 1.14 | 0.19 | 2.39 | (2.13) | 5.34 | |
| DK | Delek Energy | 0.55 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.84 | (5.12) | 16.57 | |
| DKL | Delek Logistics Partners | (0.35) | 12 per month | 0.99 | 0.18 | 2.92 | (1.98) | 6.06 | |
| CAPL | Crossamerica Partners LP | 0.47 | 9 per month | 0.81 | 0.28 | 2.02 | (1.63) | 4.96 |
Valero Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Valero price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Valero using various technical indicators. When you analyze Valero charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Valero Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Valero Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Valero Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Valero Energy based on analysis of Valero Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Valero Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Valero Energy's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0312 | 0.0316 | 0.0351 | 0.0213 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.3 | 0.22 |
Story Coverage note for Valero Energy
The number of cover stories for Valero Energy depends on current market conditions and Valero Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Valero Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Valero Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Valero Energy Short Properties
Valero Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Valero Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Valero Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Valero Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valero Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 322 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.7 B |
Check out Valero Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Valero Stock, please use our How to Invest in Valero Energy guide.You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Is Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valero Energy. If investors know Valero will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Valero Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.75) | Dividend Share 4.28 | Earnings Share 8.58 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.14) |
The market value of Valero Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valero that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valero Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valero Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Valero Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valero Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valero Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valero Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Valero Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.