Cvr Energy Stock Price Prediction
| CVI Stock | USD 19.35 0.08 0.42% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
43
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.84) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.01 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.57) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.5672 | Wall Street Target Price 19.9167 |
Using CVR Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CVR Energy from the perspective of CVR Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
CVR Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to CVR Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in CVR. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CVR can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CVR Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of CVR Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about CVR Energy.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in CVR Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying CVR because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
CVR Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 19.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CVR |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CVR Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CVR Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CVR Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CVR Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CVR Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CVR Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CVR Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CVR Energy's historical news coverage. CVR Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.01 and 23.73, respectively. We have considered CVR Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CVR Energy is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CVR Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
CVR Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CVR Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CVR Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CVR Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 4.33 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
19.35 | 19.37 | 0.10 |
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CVR Energy Hype Timeline
On the 1st of December CVR Energy is traded for 19.35. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. CVR is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 19.37 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.3%. The volatility of related hype on CVR Energy is about 8660.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.33. The company reported the last year's revenue of 9.25 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 878 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.42 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out CVR Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.CVR Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CVR Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CVR Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how CVR Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CVR Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DKL | Delek Logistics Partners | (0.71) | 9 per month | 2.22 | (0.01) | 2.84 | (1.44) | 16.59 | |
| PBF | PBF Energy | 0.63 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.52 | (3.76) | 15.94 | |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corp | 0.21 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.75 | (4.36) | 11.79 | |
| PARR | Par Pacific Holdings | (1.43) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.34 | (5.60) | 14.28 | |
| DK | Delek Energy | 0.30 | 9 per month | 2.64 | (0.05) | 3.44 | (3.90) | 16.10 | |
| VLO | Valero Energy | 0.70 | 8 per month | 1.96 | (0.07) | 2.87 | (3.31) | 11.46 | |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corp | 1.45 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.19 | (3.01) | 13.39 | |
| CAPL | Crossamerica Partners LP | (0.33) | 9 per month | 1.14 | (0.02) | 2.88 | (2.23) | 6.12 | |
| SUN | Sunoco LP | (0.66) | 9 per month | 1.01 | (0.01) | 3.30 | (1.93) | 5.70 | |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | (0.66) | 7 per month | 1.68 | (0.08) | 1.81 | (2.97) | 7.77 |
CVR Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CVR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CVR using various technical indicators. When you analyze CVR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About CVR Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of CVR Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as CVR Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of CVR Energy based on analysis of CVR Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to CVR Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to CVR Energy's related companies. | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0951 | 0.1 | 0.14 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.51 | 0.3 | 0.23 |
Story Coverage note for CVR Energy
The number of cover stories for CVR Energy depends on current market conditions and CVR Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CVR Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CVR Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CVR Energy Short Properties
CVR Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when CVR Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CVR Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CVR Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CVR Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 100.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 581 M |
Complementary Tools for CVR Stock analysis
When running CVR Energy's price analysis, check to measure CVR Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CVR Energy is operating at the current time. Most of CVR Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CVR Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CVR Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CVR Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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