Skyward Specialty Insurance Stock Price Prediction
| SKWD Stock | 49.78 2.43 5.13% |
Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.54) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.7843 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.4233 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.8747 | Wall Street Target Price 57.375 |
Using Skyward Specialty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Skyward Specialty Insurance from the perspective of Skyward Specialty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Skyward Specialty using Skyward Specialty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Skyward using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Skyward Specialty's stock price.
Skyward Specialty Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Skyward Specialty's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Skyward. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Skyward Specialty stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 43.6963 | Short Percent 0.0197 | Short Ratio 1.71 | Shares Short Prior Month 836.5 K | 50 Day MA 47.4936 |
Skyward Specialty Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Skyward Specialty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Skyward. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Skyward can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Skyward Specialty Insurance. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Skyward Specialty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Skyward Specialty.
Skyward Specialty Implied Volatility | 0.95 |
Skyward Specialty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Skyward Specialty Insurance stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Skyward Specialty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Skyward Specialty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Skyward Specialty's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Skyward Specialty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Skyward because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Skyward Specialty after-hype prediction price | USD 49.79 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Skyward contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Skyward Specialty Insurance will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0594% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Skyward Specialty trading at USD 49.78, that is roughly USD 0.0296 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Skyward Specialty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Skyward Specialty Insurance options at the current volatility level of 0.95%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Skyward |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Skyward Specialty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Skyward Specialty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Skyward Specialty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Skyward Specialty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Skyward Specialty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Skyward Specialty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Skyward Specialty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Skyward Specialty's historical news coverage. Skyward Specialty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.36 and 52.22, respectively. We have considered Skyward Specialty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Skyward Specialty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Skyward Specialty is based on 3 months time horizon.
Skyward Specialty Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Skyward Specialty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Skyward Specialty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Skyward Specialty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 2.43 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
49.78 | 49.79 | 0.02 |
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Skyward Specialty Hype Timeline
Skyward Specialty is at this time traded for 49.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Skyward is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 49.79 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Skyward Specialty is about 1240.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 49.77. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.15 B. Net Income was 118.83 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 330.42 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Skyward Specialty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Skyward Specialty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Skyward Specialty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Skyward Specialty's future price movements. Getting to know how Skyward Specialty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Skyward Specialty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HMN | Horace Mann Educators | 0.08 | 9 per month | 1.88 | 0.08 | 2.17 | (3.10) | 9.56 | |
| KMPR | Kemper | (1.48) | 8 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 2.63 | (3.04) | 7.37 | |
| RLI | RLI Corp | (0.50) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 1.83 | (2.00) | 9.92 | |
| GBLI | Global Indemnity PLC | (0.03) | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 3.99 | (2.92) | 9.43 | |
| ARGO-PA | Argo Group International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.89 | 0.25 | (0.16) | 0.65 | |
| NODK | NI Holdings | (0.23) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.11 | (2.84) | 9.93 | |
| DGICA | Donegal Group A | 0.19 | 9 per month | 1.02 | 0.19 | 2.44 | (1.98) | 6.12 | |
| SIGIP | Selective Insurance Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 2.12 | (1.56) | 4.80 | |
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group | (0.80) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 2.62 | (2.27) | 15.02 | |
| DGICB | Donegal Group B | (1.09) | 7 per month | 2.62 | 0.07 | 4.71 | (5.55) | 17.15 | |
| PRA | ProAssurance | 1.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 2.56 | (2.98) | 17.29 | |
| STC | Stewart Information Services | 0.50 | 8 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 2.91 | (2.97) | 7.24 |
Skyward Specialty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Skyward price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Skyward using various technical indicators. When you analyze Skyward charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Skyward Specialty Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Skyward Specialty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Skyward Specialty Insurance, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Skyward Specialty based on analysis of Skyward Specialty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Skyward Specialty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Skyward Specialty's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 337.61 | 300.1 | PTB Ratio | 2.55 | 1.94 |
Story Coverage note for Skyward Specialty
The number of cover stories for Skyward Specialty depends on current market conditions and Skyward Specialty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Skyward Specialty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Skyward Specialty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Skyward Specialty Short Properties
Skyward Specialty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Skyward Specialty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Skyward Specialty Insurance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Skyward Specialty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Skyward Specialty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Complementary Tools for Skyward Stock analysis
When running Skyward Specialty's price analysis, check to measure Skyward Specialty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Skyward Specialty is operating at the current time. Most of Skyward Specialty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Skyward Specialty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Skyward Specialty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Skyward Specialty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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