Selective Insurance Group Stock Price Prediction

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 85.77 99.22 100.88 Details

Naive Forecast Low Next High 91.76 93.41 95.06 Details

8 Analysts Consensus Low Target High 93.58 102.83 114.14 Details

Earnings Estimates (0) Low Projected EPS High 0.86 2.01 0.95 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Selective Insurance. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Selective Insurance's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Selective Insurance's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Selective Insurance.

Selective Insurance After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

Selective Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Selective Insurance Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Expected Return	Period Volatility	Hype Elasticity	Related Elasticity	News Density	Related Density	Expected Hype
0.08	1.65	0.09	0.05	10 Events / Month	2 Events / Month	In about 10 days

Latest traded price	Expected after-news price	Potential return on next major news	Average after-hype volatility
95.30	95.39	0.09	143.48   Notes

Selective Insurance Hype Timeline

Selective Insurance is at this time traded for 95.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Selective is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 95.39 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 143.48%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Selective Insurance is about 263.3%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 95.35. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 101.17 M. Net Income was 365.24 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 740.47 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Selective Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Selective Insurance Related Hype Analysis

Selective Insurance Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Selective price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Selective using various technical indicators. When you analyze Selective charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

The successful prediction of Selective Insurance stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Selective Insurance Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Selective Insurance based on analysis of Selective Insurance hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.

The number of cover stories for Selective Insurance depends on current market conditions and Selective Insurance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Selective Insurance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Selective Insurance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Selective Insurance's future price predictability will typically decrease when Selective Insurance's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Selective Insurance Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Selective Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Selective Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

When running Selective Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Selective Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Selective Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Selective Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Selective Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Selective Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Selective Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.