Natural Grocers By Stock Price Prediction
| NGVC Stock | USD 36.62 0.12 0.33% |
Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.29 | Wall Street Target Price 19 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.097 |
Using Natural Grocers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Natural Grocers by from the perspective of Natural Grocers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Natural Grocers using Natural Grocers' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Natural using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Natural Grocers' stock price.
Natural Grocers Implied Volatility | 0.83 |
Natural Grocers' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Natural Grocers by stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Natural Grocers' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Natural Grocers stock will not fluctuate a lot when Natural Grocers' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Natural Grocers to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Natural because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Natural Grocers after-hype prediction price | USD 37.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Natural contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Natural Grocers by will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0519% per day over the life of the 2025-06-20 option contract. With Natural Grocers trading at USD 36.62, that is roughly USD 0.019 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Natural Grocers' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Natural Grocers by options at the current volatility level of 0.83%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Natural |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natural Grocers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Natural Grocers After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Natural Grocers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Natural Grocers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Natural Grocers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Natural Grocers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Natural Grocers' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Natural Grocers' historical news coverage. Natural Grocers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.96 and 40.46, respectively. We have considered Natural Grocers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Natural Grocers is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Natural Grocers by is based on 3 months time horizon.
Natural Grocers Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Natural Grocers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Natural Grocers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Natural Grocers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 3.25 | 0.59 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
36.62 | 37.21 | 1.61 |
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Natural Grocers Hype Timeline
Natural Grocers by is now traded for 36.62. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.59, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Natural is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 37.21 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 82.07%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.61%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Natural Grocers is about 1147.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 36.66. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.24 B. Net Income was 33.94 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 377.27 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Natural Grocers Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Natural Grocers Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Natural Grocers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Natural Grocers' future price movements. Getting to know how Natural Grocers' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Natural Grocers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WMK | Weis Markets | 1.69 | 9 per month | 1.68 | 0.17 | 2.78 | (2.13) | 8.78 | |
| IMKTA | Ingles Markets Incorporated | (1.37) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.16 | (2.47) | 6.23 | |
| ASAI | Sendas Distribuidora SA | (0.27) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.51 | (7.48) | 23.54 | |
| GO | Grocery Outlet Holding | 1.57 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.42 | (4.81) | 38.19 | |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market | 0.39 | 8 per month | 1.63 | 0.12 | 2.82 | (3.14) | 10.84 | |
| ADRNY | Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| OCDDY | Ocado Group plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.88 | (5.26) | 29.71 | |
| SFM | Sprouts Farmers Market | (0.05) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0) | 4.43 | (4.52) | 21.16 | |
| ACI | Albertsons Companies | 0.59 | 8 per month | 1.59 | 0.16 | 3.42 | (2.69) | 9.41 |
Natural Grocers Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Natural price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Natural using various technical indicators. When you analyze Natural charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Natural Grocers Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Natural Grocers stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Natural Grocers by, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Natural Grocers based on analysis of Natural Grocers hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Natural Grocers's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Natural Grocers's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.031 | 0.0471 | 0.0542 | 0.0762 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.26 | 0.54 | 0.63 | 0.89 |
Story Coverage note for Natural Grocers
The number of cover stories for Natural Grocers depends on current market conditions and Natural Grocers' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Natural Grocers is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Natural Grocers' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Natural Grocers Short Properties
Natural Grocers' future price predictability will typically decrease when Natural Grocers' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Natural Grocers by often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Natural Grocers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natural Grocers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.9 M |
Complementary Tools for Natural Stock analysis
When running Natural Grocers' price analysis, check to measure Natural Grocers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natural Grocers is operating at the current time. Most of Natural Grocers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natural Grocers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natural Grocers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natural Grocers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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