National Grid Plc Stock Price Prediction
| NGG Stock | USD 62.40 0.33 0.53% |
Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.5784 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.7859 | Wall Street Target Price 68.9315 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
Using National Grid hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Grid PLC from the perspective of National Grid response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards National Grid using National Grid's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards National using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of National Grid's stock price.
National Grid Implied Volatility | 0.41 |
National Grid's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of National Grid PLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if National Grid's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that National Grid stock will not fluctuate a lot when National Grid's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in National Grid to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying National because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
National Grid after-hype prediction price | USD 62.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current National contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that National Grid PLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0256% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With National Grid trading at USD 62.4, that is roughly USD 0.016 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating National Grid's daily price movement you should consider acquiring National Grid PLC options at the current volatility level of 0.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
National |
National Grid After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Grid at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Grid or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Grid, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Grid Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Grid's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Grid's historical news coverage. National Grid's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 61.47 and 63.99, respectively. We have considered National Grid's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Grid is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Grid PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Grid Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Grid is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Grid backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Grid, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.27 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 11 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
62.40 | 62.73 | 0.00 |
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National Grid Hype Timeline
On the 26th of February National Grid PLC is traded for 62.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. National is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on National Grid is about 1481.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 62.40. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.34. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. National Grid PLC has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.86. The entity last dividend was issued on the 22nd of November 2024. The firm had 916:1000 split on the 22nd of May 2017. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out National Grid Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.National Grid Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Grid's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Grid's future price movements. Getting to know how National Grid's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Grid may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SO | Southern Company | 0.48 | 7 per month | 1.29 | 0.03 | 1.87 | (2.04) | 7.03 | |
| EIX | Edison International | 1.22 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 2.52 | (6.33) | 13.93 | |
| AEP | American Electric Power | 0.62 | 7 per month | 0.90 | 0.15 | 1.66 | (1.65) | 7.10 | |
| DUK | Duke Energy | (0.61) | 9 per month | 1.02 | 0.05 | 1.77 | (1.76) | 4.59 | |
| D | Dominion Energy | 0.61 | 6 per month | 1.74 | (0.01) | 1.39 | (2.22) | 8.40 | |
| CNP | CenterPoint Energy | 0.31 | 8 per month | 0.73 | 0.14 | 1.81 | (1.74) | 4.82 | |
| FE | FirstEnergy | 0.48 | 10 per month | 1.00 | 0.05 | 1.77 | (1.75) | 5.99 | |
| PNW | Pinnacle West Capital | 0.47 | 8 per month | 1.06 | 0.01 | 1.56 | (1.75) | 4.71 | |
| PEG | Public Service Enterprise | (0.51) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.25 | (2.34) | 9.33 | |
| ETR | Entergy | (0.64) | 10 per month | 1.13 | 0.15 | 2.26 | (1.85) | 7.62 | |
| EXC | Exelon | (0.09) | 8 per month | 1.05 | 0.13 | 1.78 | (2.18) | 6.50 | |
| PPL | PPL Corporation | (0.76) | 7 per month | 1.11 | 0.04 | 1.71 | (1.98) | 6.01 | |
| CMS | CMS Energy | 0.69 | 8 per month | 1.03 | 0.09 | 1.60 | (1.82) | 4.61 | |
| ED | Consolidated Edison | (1.07) | 7 per month | 1.00 | 0.04 | 2.20 | (2.05) | 6.55 |
National Grid Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About National Grid Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of National Grid stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as National Grid PLC, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of National Grid based on analysis of National Grid hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to National Grid's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to National Grid's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0436 | 0.0454 | 0.0409 | 0.0399 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.7 | 1.91 | 2.19 | 2.43 |
Story Coverage note for National Grid
The number of cover stories for National Grid depends on current market conditions and National Grid's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Grid is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Grid's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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National Grid Short Properties
National Grid's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Grid's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Grid PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Grid's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Grid's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.2 B |
Complementary Tools for National Stock analysis
When running National Grid's price analysis, check to measure National Grid's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Grid is operating at the current time. Most of National Grid's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Grid's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Grid's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Grid to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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