Grocery Outlet Holding Stock Price Prediction
| GO Stock | USD 15.74 0.06 0.38% |
Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.83) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.27 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.757 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.9089 | Wall Street Target Price 14.0357 |
Using Grocery Outlet hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Grocery Outlet Holding from the perspective of Grocery Outlet response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Grocery Outlet using Grocery Outlet's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Grocery using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Grocery Outlet's stock price.
Grocery Outlet Short Interest
An investor who is long Grocery Outlet may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Grocery Outlet and may potentially protect profits, hedge Grocery Outlet with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 18.4307 | Short Percent 0.1091 | Short Ratio 5.47 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.5 M | 50 Day MA 16.4814 |
Grocery Outlet Holding Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Grocery Outlet's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Grocery. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Grocery can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Grocery Outlet Holding. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Grocery Outlet's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Grocery Outlet.
Grocery Outlet Implied Volatility | 1.23 |
Grocery Outlet's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Grocery Outlet Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Grocery Outlet's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Grocery Outlet stock will not fluctuate a lot when Grocery Outlet's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Grocery Outlet to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Grocery because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Grocery Outlet after-hype prediction price | USD 15.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Grocery contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Grocery Outlet Holding will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0769% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Grocery Outlet trading at USD 15.74, that is roughly USD 0.0121 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Grocery Outlet's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Grocery Outlet Holding options at the current volatility level of 1.23%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Grocery |
Grocery Outlet After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Grocery Outlet at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Grocery Outlet or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Grocery Outlet, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Grocery Outlet Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Grocery Outlet's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Grocery Outlet's historical news coverage. Grocery Outlet's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.30 and 19.96, respectively. We have considered Grocery Outlet's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Grocery Outlet is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Grocery Outlet Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Grocery Outlet Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Grocery Outlet is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Grocery Outlet backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Grocery Outlet, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.45 | 2.89 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
15.74 | 15.13 | 3.88 |
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Grocery Outlet Hype Timeline
As of February 27, 2025 Grocery Outlet Holding is listed for 15.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.29, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.2. Grocery is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 15.13. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -3.88%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.45%. The volatility of related hype on Grocery Outlet is about 637.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.94. About 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.25. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Grocery Outlet Holding has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.48. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Grocery Outlet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Grocery Outlet Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Grocery Outlet's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Grocery Outlet's future price movements. Getting to know how Grocery Outlet's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Grocery Outlet may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NGVC | Natural Grocers by | 1.65 | 9 per month | 2.86 | 0.11 | 4.47 | (4.07) | 35.56 | |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market | (0.11) | 9 per month | 1.64 | 0.05 | 2.82 | (3.14) | 10.84 | |
| IMKTA | Ingles Markets Incorporated | 1.10 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.16 | (2.26) | 7.34 | |
| OCDDY | Ocado Group plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.63 | 0.05 | 4.55 | (4.10) | 14.23 | |
| WMK | Weis Markets | (2.72) | 7 per month | 1.46 | 0.07 | 2.67 | (1.87) | 7.71 | |
| ASAI | Sendas Distribuidora SA | (0.27) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.51 | (7.48) | 23.54 | |
| ACI | Albertsons Companies | (0.07) | 8 per month | 1.27 | 0.09 | 2.39 | (2.34) | 7.71 | |
| KR | Kroger Company | (0.17) | 7 per month | 1.13 | 0.11 | 2.74 | (2.43) | 7.55 | |
| SFM | Sprouts Farmers Market | 4.67 | 7 per month | 3.56 | 0.03 | 3.82 | (3.30) | 21.16 |
Grocery Outlet Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Grocery price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Grocery using various technical indicators. When you analyze Grocery charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Grocery Outlet Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Grocery Outlet stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Grocery Outlet Holding, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Grocery Outlet based on analysis of Grocery Outlet hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Grocery Outlet's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Grocery Outlet's related companies. | 2018 | 2022 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0726 | 3.7E-5 | 4.1E-5 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.92 | 0.79 | 0.98 |
Story Coverage note for Grocery Outlet
The number of cover stories for Grocery Outlet depends on current market conditions and Grocery Outlet's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Grocery Outlet is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Grocery Outlet's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Grocery Outlet Short Properties
Grocery Outlet's future price predictability will typically decrease when Grocery Outlet's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Grocery Outlet Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Grocery Outlet's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grocery Outlet's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 100.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 115 M |
Check out Grocery Outlet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Grocery Outlet. If investors know Grocery will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Grocery Outlet listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.83) | Earnings Share 0.36 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.109 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Grocery Outlet Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Grocery that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Grocery Outlet's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Grocery Outlet's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Grocery Outlet's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Grocery Outlet's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grocery Outlet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grocery Outlet is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grocery Outlet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.