1st Source Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

SRCE Stock  USD 64.90  0.61  0.95%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding 1st Source is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides 1st Source buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding SRCE positions.
  
Check out 1st Source Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For information on how to trade 1st Stock refer to our How to Trade 1st Stock guide.
Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as 1st and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. 1st Source. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators.

Execute 1st Source Buy or Sell Advice

The 1st recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on 1st Source. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in 1st Source or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute 1st Source's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell 1st SourceBuy 1st Source
Strong Hold

Market Performance

WeakDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

StaleDetails

Current Valuation

Fairly ValuedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Very LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Almost mirrors the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

AlarmedDetails

Analyst Consensus

HoldDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon 1st Source has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0141, Jensen Alpha of 0.0336, Total Risk Alpha of 0.0608, Sortino Ratio of 0.0222 and Treynor Ratio of 0.0086
Macroaxis provides unbiased investment recommendation on 1st Source that should be used to complement current analysts and expert consensus on 1st Source. Our trade advice engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investors' current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure 1st Source is not overpriced, please confirm all 1st Source fundamentals, including its total debt, price to earnings to growth, and the relationship between the net income and cash flow from operations . Given that 1st Source has a number of shares shorted of 188.09 K, we suggest you to validate 1st Source market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

1st Source Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

About 73.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Y Intercept Hong Kong Ltd Takes Position in 1st Source Co.

1st Source Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of 1st Source's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of 1st Source's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of 1st Source daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use 1st Source price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of 1st Source returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for 1st Source.
Mean Return
0.02
Value At Risk
-2.03
Potential Upside
2.72
Standard Deviation
1.65
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of 1st Source historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

1st Stock Institutional Investors

Shares
Millennium Management Llc2024-12-31
203.9 K
Bridgeway Capital Management, Llc2024-12-31
196.6 K
Northern Trust Corp2024-12-31
184.4 K
Jpmorgan Chase & Co2024-09-30
182 K
Kennedy Capital Management Inc2024-09-30
178.2 K
Goldman Sachs Group Inc2024-12-31
163.9 K
Renaissance Technologies Corp2024-12-31
142 K
Fmr Inc2024-12-31
132.8 K
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2024-12-31
126 K
1st Source Bank2024-12-31
5.3 M
Blackrock Inc2024-12-31
M
Note, although 1st Source's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

1st Source Cash Flow Accounts

202020212022202320242025 (projected)
Change In Cash159.7M282.1M(402.4M)6.9M(4.8M)(4.6M)
Free Cash Flow151.6M163.9M173.2M182.0M181.5M190.6M
Depreciation31.1M24.0M19.1M15.5M12.4M22.7M
Other Non Cash Items50.8M1.5M22.3M12.1M16.9M13.8M
Dividends Paid29.8M(31.3M)(32.1M)(33.1M)(35.4M)(33.6M)
Capital Expenditures2.9M2.9M2.4M6.0M12.4M17.5M
Net Income81.5M118.6M120.5M124.9M132.6M139.2M
End Period Cash Flow243.0M525.2M122.8M129.7M124.8M133.5M
Investments(672.3M)(594.2M)(842.4M)(358.3M)(276.6M)(290.4M)
Change Receivables245K(1.1M)2.5M(7.0M)(6.3M)(6.0M)
Net Borrowings(56.1M)11.8M35.9M(10.0M)(9.0M)(8.6M)
Change To Netincome15.8M23.2M13.4M16.3M14.7M17.0M

1st Source Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to 1st Source or Banks sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that 1st Source's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a 1st stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.03
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.06
σ
Overall volatility
1.71
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

1st Source Volatility Alert

1st Source has relatively low volatility with skewness of 1.11 and kurtosis of 7.27. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure 1st Source's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact 1st Source's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

1st Source Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing 1st Source's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze 1st Source's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between 1st Source and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as 1st Source or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of 1st Source's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 1st Source by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare 1st Source to competition
Fundamentals1st SourcePeer Average
Return On Equity0.12-0.31
Return On Asset0.015-0.14
Profit Margin0.35 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.44 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation1.88 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding24.55 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders15.61 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions73.05 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted188.09 K4.71 M
Price To Earning15.73 X28.72 X
Price To Book1.43 X9.51 X
Price To Sales4.25 X11.42 X
Revenue484.02 M9.43 B
Gross Profit374.66 M27.38 B
EBITDA7.09 M3.9 B
Net Income132.62 M570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents144.52 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share5.86 X5.01 X
Total Debt176.85 M5.32 B
Debt To Equity7.06 %48.70 %
Book Value Per Share45.31 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations193.85 M971.22 M
Short Ratio2.04 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share5.36 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth2.03 X4.89 X
Target Price69.5
Number Of Employees1.21 K18.84 K
Beta0.8-0.15
Market Capitalization1.59 B19.03 B
Total Asset8.93 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings890.94 M9.33 B
Annual Yield0.02 %
Five Year Return2.38 %
Note: Disposition of 4000 shares by Murphy Carmen C of 1st Source subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

1st Source Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as 1st . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About 1st Source Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell 1st Source? Buying financial instruments such as 1st Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having 1st Source in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Fabricated Products Thematic Idea Now

Fabricated Products
Fabricated Products Theme
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Fabricated Products theme has 11 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Fabricated Products Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether 1st Source is a strong investment it is important to analyze 1st Source's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact 1st Source's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding 1st Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out 1st Source Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For information on how to trade 1st Stock refer to our How to Trade 1st Stock guide.
You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of 1st Source. If investors know 1st will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about 1st Source listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.102
Dividend Share
1.42
Earnings Share
5.36
Revenue Per Share
15.295
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.063
The market value of 1st Source is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of 1st that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of 1st Source's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is 1st Source's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because 1st Source's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect 1st Source's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between 1st Source's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if 1st Source is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, 1st Source's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.