Ardagh Metal Packaging Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

AMBP Stock  USD 2.90  0.18  6.62%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Ardagh Metal Packaging is 'Hold'. A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated analysis based on historical performance and your stated risk tolerance. It serves as guidance on whether to purchase or sell Ardagh Metal Packaging within the specified time frame.
  
Check out Ardagh Metal Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Ardagh and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Ardagh Metal Packaging. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics.

Execute Ardagh Metal Buy or Sell Advice

The Ardagh recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Ardagh Metal Packaging. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Ardagh Metal Packaging or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Ardagh Metal's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Ardagh MetalBuy Ardagh Metal
Hold

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

Moderately volatileDetails

Hype Condition

StaleDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Above AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Follows the market closelyDetails

Investor Sentiment

ImpartialDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Ardagh Metal Packaging has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06), Jensen Alpha of (0.14), Total Risk Alpha of 0.138 and Treynor Ratio of (0.28)
We provide trade advice to complement the prevailing expert consensus on Ardagh Metal Packaging. Our dynamic recommendation engine uses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the company's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. To make sure Ardagh Metal is not overpriced, please confirm all Ardagh Metal Packaging fundamentals, including its gross profit, book value per share, and the relationship between the price to earning and cash per share . Please also double-check Ardagh Metal Packaging price to earning to validate your buy or sell decision is consistent with all fundamental data available and that the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle.

Ardagh Metal Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Ardagh Metal generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ardagh Metal has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.91 B. Net Loss for the year was (3 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 598 M.
About 76.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Is Ardagh Metal Packaging SA The Best Stock Under 3 to Buy Now

Ardagh Metal Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Ardagh Metal's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Ardagh Metal's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Ardagh Metal daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Ardagh Metal Packaging price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Ardagh Metal returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Ardagh Metal.
Mean Return
-0.21
Value At Risk
-4.23
Potential Upside
5.22
Standard Deviation
2.88
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Ardagh Metal historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Ardagh Stock Institutional Investors

The Ardagh Metal's institutional investors refer to entities that pool money to purchase Ardagh Metal's securities or originate loans. These institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds.
Shares
King Street Capital Management Lp2024-12-31
2.5 M
State Street Corp2024-12-31
2.5 M
Centerbook Partners Lp2024-12-31
2.4 M
Renaissance Technologies Corp2024-12-31
1.8 M
Geode Capital Management, Llc2024-12-31
1.8 M
Jacobs Levy Equity Management, Inc.2024-12-31
1.8 M
Gilman Hill Asset Management, Llc2024-12-31
1.8 M
Boundary Creek Advisors Lp2024-12-31
1.7 M
Keeley-teton Advisors, Llc2024-12-31
1.6 M
Canyon Capital Advisors Llc2024-12-31
10.2 M
Goldman Sachs Group Inc2024-12-31
8.9 M
Note, although Ardagh Metal's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Ardagh Metal Cash Flow Accounts

202020212022202320242025 (projected)
Change In Cash(27M)206M92M(112M)167M175.4M
Net Borrowings(10M)(43M)(16M)540M621M652.1M
Free Cash Flow66M(229M)(391M)237M263M276.2M
Depreciation315M343M359M418M449M386.3M
Other Non Cash Items68M440M(208M)(1M)(49M)(46.6M)
Capital Expenditures268M687M596M379M187M177.7M
Net Income111M(210M)237M(50M)(3M)(3.2M)
End Period Cash Flow257M463M555M443M610M433.7M
Change To Netincome20M(99M)309M(189M)(170.1M)(161.6M)
Investments(268M)(691M)(595M)(486M)(179M)(188.0M)

Ardagh Metal Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Ardagh Metal or Metals & Mining sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Ardagh Metal's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Ardagh stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.14
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.81
σ
Overall volatility
2.85
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

Ardagh Metal Volatility Alert

Ardagh Metal Packaging exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.07 and kurtosis of 2.48. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Ardagh Metal's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Ardagh Metal's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Ardagh Metal Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Ardagh Metal's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Ardagh Metal's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Ardagh Metal and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Ardagh Metal or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Ardagh Metal's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ardagh Metal by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Ardagh Metal to competition
FundamentalsArdagh MetalPeer Average
Return On Equity-0.64-0.31
Return On Asset0.0191-0.14
Profit Margin(0.0006) %(1.27) %
Operating Margin(0) %(5.51) %
Current Valuation5.03 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding597.7 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders76.04 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions19.09 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted4.73 M4.71 M
Price To Earning68.04 X28.72 X
Price To Book94.32 X9.51 X
Price To Sales0.35 X11.42 X
Revenue4.91 B9.43 B
Gross Profit598 M27.38 B
EBITDA629 M3.9 B
Net Income(3 M)570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents583 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share0.98 X5.01 X
Total Debt3.9 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity6.21 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.46 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share(0.24) X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations450 M971.22 M
Short Ratio2.90 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(0.05) X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth0.59 X4.89 X
Target Price3.51
Number Of Employees6.33 K18.84 K
Beta0.63-0.15
Market Capitalization1.73 B19.03 B
Total Asset5.46 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings(738 M)9.33 B
Working Capital182 M1.48 B

Ardagh Metal Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Ardagh . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Ardagh Metal Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Ardagh Metal Packaging? Buying financial instruments such as Ardagh Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.

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Additional Tools for Ardagh Stock Analysis

When running Ardagh Metal's price analysis, check to measure Ardagh Metal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ardagh Metal is operating at the current time. Most of Ardagh Metal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ardagh Metal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ardagh Metal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ardagh Metal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.