Geo Group Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 11.98
| GEO Stock | USD 27.66 0.63 2.23% |
Geo |
Geo Target Price Odds to finish over 11.98
The tendency of Geo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 11.98 in 90 days |
| 27.66 | 90 days | 11.98 | about 92.3 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Geo to stay above $ 11.98 in 90 days from now is about 92.3 (This Geo Group probability density function shows the probability of Geo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Geo Group price to stay between $ 11.98 and its current price of $27.66 at the end of the 90-day period is about 74.92 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Geo has a beta of 0.84. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Geo average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Geo Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Moreover Geo Group has an alpha of 1.3434, implying that it can generate a 1.34 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Geo Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Geo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Geo Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Geo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Geo Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Geo is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Geo's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Geo Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Geo within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.84 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.22 |
Geo Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Geo for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Geo Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Geo Group is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Geo Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Geo Group is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: With 81 percent ownership, The GEO Group, Inc. boasts of strong institutional backing |
Geo Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Geo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Geo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Geo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 123.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 94 M |
Geo Technical Analysis
Geo's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Geo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Geo Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Geo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Geo Predictive Forecast Models
Geo's time-series forecasting models is one of many Geo's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Geo's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Geo Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Geo for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Geo Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Geo Group is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Geo Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Geo Group is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: With 81 percent ownership, The GEO Group, Inc. boasts of strong institutional backing |
Check out Geo Backtesting, Geo Valuation, Geo Correlation, Geo Hype Analysis, Geo Volatility, Geo History as well as Geo Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Is Commercial Services & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Geo. If investors know Geo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Geo listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.188 | Earnings Share 0.28 | Revenue Per Share 18.972 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.001 | Return On Assets 0.0555 |
The market value of Geo Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Geo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Geo's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Geo's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Geo's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Geo's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Geo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Geo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Geo's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.