First Northwest Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.28
| FNWB Stock | USD 10.25 0.12 1.16% |
First |
First Northwest Target Price Odds to finish below 3.28
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 3.28 or more in 90 days |
| 10.25 | 90 days | 3.28 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Northwest to drop to $ 3.28 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This First Northwest Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Northwest Bancorp price to stay between $ 3.28 and its current price of $10.25 at the end of the 90-day period is about 24.96 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days First Northwest has a beta of 0.83. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Northwest average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Northwest Bancorp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First Northwest Bancorp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. First Northwest Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Northwest
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Northwest Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Northwest's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Northwest Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Northwest is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Northwest's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Northwest Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Northwest within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.83 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
First Northwest Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Northwest for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Northwest Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First Northwest generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| First Northwest has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| First Northwest has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 20.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 22nd of November 2024 First Northwest paid $ 0.07 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana Announces Retirement of Director and Appointment of New CFO |
First Northwest Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Northwest's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Northwest's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 315.5 M |
First Northwest Technical Analysis
First Northwest's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Northwest Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Northwest Predictive Forecast Models
First Northwest's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Northwest's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Northwest's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Northwest Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Northwest for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Northwest Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| First Northwest generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| First Northwest has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| First Northwest has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 20.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 22nd of November 2024 First Northwest paid $ 0.07 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana Announces Retirement of Director and Appointment of New CFO |
Check out First Northwest Backtesting, First Northwest Valuation, First Northwest Correlation, First Northwest Hype Analysis, First Northwest Volatility, First Northwest History as well as First Northwest Performance. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Northwest. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Northwest listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.19) | Dividend Share 0.28 | Earnings Share (1.04) | Revenue Per Share 5.743 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.28) |
The market value of First Northwest Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Northwest's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Northwest's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Northwest's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Northwest's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Northwest's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Northwest is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Northwest's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.