First Guaranty Bancshares Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 12.09
| FGBI Stock | USD 12.79 0.18 1.39% |
First |
First Guaranty Target Price Odds to finish over 12.09
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 12.09 in 90 days |
| 12.79 | 90 days | 12.09 | about 34.82 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Guaranty to stay above $ 12.09 in 90 days from now is about 34.82 (This First Guaranty Bancshares probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Guaranty Bancshares price to stay between $ 12.09 and its current price of $12.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.06 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days First Guaranty has a beta of 0.59. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Guaranty average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Guaranty Bancshares will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First Guaranty Bancshares has an alpha of 0.2664, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). First Guaranty Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Guaranty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Guaranty Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Guaranty Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Guaranty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Guaranty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Guaranty Bancshares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Guaranty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
First Guaranty Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Guaranty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Guaranty Bancshares can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 52.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: First Guaranty Bancshares announces dividend |
First Guaranty Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Guaranty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Guaranty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 286.5 M |
First Guaranty Technical Analysis
First Guaranty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Guaranty Bancshares. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Guaranty Predictive Forecast Models
First Guaranty's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Guaranty's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Guaranty's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Guaranty Bancshares
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Guaranty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Guaranty Bancshares help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 52.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: First Guaranty Bancshares announces dividend |
Check out First Guaranty Backtesting, First Guaranty Valuation, First Guaranty Correlation, First Guaranty Hype Analysis, First Guaranty Volatility, First Guaranty History as well as First Guaranty Performance. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Guaranty. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Guaranty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.033 | Dividend Share 0.56 | Earnings Share 0.84 | Revenue Per Share 7.78 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of First Guaranty Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Guaranty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Guaranty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Guaranty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Guaranty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Guaranty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Guaranty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Guaranty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.