First Guaranty Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FGBI Stock | USD 13.50 0.17 1.28% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Guaranty Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 13.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.44. First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Guaranty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
First |
First Guaranty Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Guaranty Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 13.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Guaranty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Guaranty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Guaranty | First Guaranty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Guaranty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Guaranty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Guaranty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.59 and 15.41, respectively. We have considered First Guaranty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Guaranty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Guaranty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.2097 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.055 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1573 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0142 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.44 |
Predictive Modules for First Guaranty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Guaranty Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for First Guaranty
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Guaranty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Guaranty's price trends.First Guaranty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Guaranty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Guaranty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Guaranty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Guaranty Bancshares Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Guaranty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Guaranty's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Guaranty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Guaranty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Guaranty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Guaranty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Guaranty Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
First Guaranty Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Guaranty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Guaranty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Variance | 3.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether First Guaranty Bancshares offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of First Guaranty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of First Guaranty Bancshares Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on First Guaranty Bancshares Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Guaranty to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Guaranty. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Guaranty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.033 | Dividend Share 0.56 | Earnings Share 0.84 | Revenue Per Share 7.78 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of First Guaranty Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Guaranty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Guaranty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Guaranty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Guaranty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Guaranty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Guaranty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Guaranty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.