Ameriserv Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.03
| ASRV Stock | USD 2.81 0.01 0.36% |
AmeriServ |
AmeriServ Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 0.03
The tendency of AmeriServ Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.03 or more in 90 days |
| 2.81 | 90 days | 0.03 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AmeriServ Financial to drop to $ 0.03 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AmeriServ Financial probability density function shows the probability of AmeriServ Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AmeriServ Financial price to stay between $ 0.03 and its current price of $2.81 at the end of the 90-day period is about 73.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days AmeriServ Financial has a beta of 0.16. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AmeriServ Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AmeriServ Financial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AmeriServ Financial has an alpha of 0.0296, implying that it can generate a 0.0296 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AmeriServ Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AmeriServ Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AmeriServ Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AmeriServ Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AmeriServ Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AmeriServ Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AmeriServ Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AmeriServ Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
AmeriServ Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AmeriServ Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AmeriServ Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AmeriServ Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 52.41 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.35 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 57.2 M. | |
| About 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 18th of November 2024 AmeriServ Financial paid $ 0.03 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by David Finui of tradable shares of AmeriServ Financial at 2.9866 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
AmeriServ Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AmeriServ Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AmeriServ Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AmeriServ Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14 M |
AmeriServ Financial Technical Analysis
AmeriServ Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AmeriServ Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AmeriServ Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing AmeriServ Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AmeriServ Financial Predictive Forecast Models
AmeriServ Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many AmeriServ Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AmeriServ Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AmeriServ Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about AmeriServ Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AmeriServ Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AmeriServ Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 52.41 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.35 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 57.2 M. | |
| About 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 18th of November 2024 AmeriServ Financial paid $ 0.03 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by David Finui of tradable shares of AmeriServ Financial at 2.9866 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Additional Tools for AmeriServ Stock Analysis
When running AmeriServ Financial's price analysis, check to measure AmeriServ Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AmeriServ Financial is operating at the current time. Most of AmeriServ Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AmeriServ Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AmeriServ Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AmeriServ Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.