Valley National Preferred Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

VLYPP Preferred Stock  USD 24.90  0.26  1.03%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Valley National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.62. Valley Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Valley National - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Valley National prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Valley National price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Valley National Bancorp.

Valley National Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Valley National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Valley Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Valley National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Valley National Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

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Valley National Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Valley National's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Valley National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.18 and 25.50, respectively. We have considered Valley National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.90
24.84
Expected Value
25.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valley National preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valley National preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0179
MADMean absolute deviation0.1291
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0052
SAESum of the absolute errors7.6177
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Valley National observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Valley National Bancorp observations.

Predictive Modules for Valley National

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valley National Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.2424.9025.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.3425.0025.66
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
24.8925.1625.42
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Valley National

For every potential investor in Valley, whether a beginner or expert, Valley National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Valley Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Valley. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Valley National's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Valley National Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The preferred stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Valley National's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Valley National's current price.

Valley National Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Valley National preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Valley National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Valley National preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Valley National Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Valley National Risk Indicators

The analysis of Valley National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valley National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting valley preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Additional Tools for Valley Preferred Stock Analysis

When running Valley National's price analysis, check to measure Valley National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valley National is operating at the current time. Most of Valley National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valley National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valley National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valley National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.