Valley National Preferred Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Valley National works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Valley National Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Valley National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 25.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.76.

Valley National Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valley National preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valley National preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. When Valley National Bancorp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Valley National Bancorp trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Valley National observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Valley National

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valley National Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 24.36 25.10 25.84 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 24.20 24.94 25.68 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Valley National

For every potential investor in Valley, whether a beginner or expert, Valley National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Valley Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Valley. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Valley National's price trends.

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Valley National Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The preferred stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Valley National's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Valley National's current price.

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Pair Trading with Valley National

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Valley National position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Valley National will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

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