UMB Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| UMBF Stock | USD 108.86 1.87 1.75% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of UMB Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 109.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.74. UMB Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of UMB Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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UMB Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of UMB Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 109.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.77, mean absolute percentage error of 4.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UMB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UMB Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
UMB Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
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UMB Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting UMB Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UMB Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 107.95 and 111.25, respectively. We have considered UMB Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UMB Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UMB Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.6762 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7663 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0151 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 107.7423 |
Predictive Modules for UMB Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UMB Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for UMB Financial
For every potential investor in UMB, whether a beginner or expert, UMB Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UMB Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UMB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UMB Financial's price trends.View UMB Financial Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
UMB Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of UMB Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of UMB Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
UMB Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UMB Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UMB Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UMB Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify UMB Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 13604.03 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8311 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 108.23 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 108.44 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.57 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.87 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 38.17 |
UMB Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of UMB Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UMB Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting umb stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Variance | 2.73 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether UMB Financial is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if UMB Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Umb Financial Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Umb Financial Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UMB Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in UMB Stock please use our How to Invest in UMB Financial guide.You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UMB Financial. If investors know UMB will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UMB Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of UMB Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UMB that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UMB Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UMB Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UMB Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UMB Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UMB Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UMB Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UMB Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.