Genius Sports Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

GENI Stock  USD 9.72  0.11  1.12%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Genius Sports on the next trading day is expected to be 9.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.24. Genius Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Genius Sports' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
As of now, Genius Sports' Payables Turnover is increasing as compared to previous years. The Genius Sports' current Receivables Turnover is estimated to increase to 4.87, while Inventory Turnover is projected to decrease to 536.71. . The current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to decrease to about 157.5 M. The current Net Loss is estimated to decrease to about (171.6 M).
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Genius Sports works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Genius Sports Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Genius Sports on the next trading day is expected to be 9.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.24.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Genius Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Genius Sports' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Genius Sports Stock Forecast Pattern

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Genius Sports Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Genius Sports' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Genius Sports' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.42 and 13.12, respectively. We have considered Genius Sports' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.72
9.77
Expected Value
13.12
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Genius Sports stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Genius Sports stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0409
MADMean absolute deviation0.2074
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0251
SAESum of the absolute errors12.2385
When Genius Sports prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Genius Sports trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Genius Sports observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Genius Sports

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genius Sports. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.379.7213.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.719.0512.41
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9.429.7910.16
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
8.739.5910.64
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Genius Sports

For every potential investor in Genius, whether a beginner or expert, Genius Sports' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Genius Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Genius. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Genius Sports' price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Genius Sports Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Genius Sports' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Genius Sports' current price.

Genius Sports Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Genius Sports stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Genius Sports shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Genius Sports stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Genius Sports entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Genius Sports Risk Indicators

The analysis of Genius Sports' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Genius Sports' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting genius stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Genius Sports offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Genius Sports' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Genius Sports Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Genius Sports Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genius Sports to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Genius Stock please use our How to Invest in Genius Sports guide.
You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Is Interactive Media & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Genius Sports. If investors know Genius will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Genius Sports listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.32)
Revenue Per Share
1.828
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.182
Return On Assets
(0.07)
Return On Equity
(0.13)
The market value of Genius Sports is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Genius that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Genius Sports' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Genius Sports' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Genius Sports' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Genius Sports' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Genius Sports' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Genius Sports is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Genius Sports' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.