Genius Sports Stock Price Prediction
| GENI Stock | USD 8.78 0.44 5.28% |
Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.01 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.10) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.06 | Wall Street Target Price 11.5417 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.01) |
Using Genius Sports hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Genius Sports from the perspective of Genius Sports response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Genius Sports using Genius Sports' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Genius using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Genius Sports' stock price.
Genius Sports Implied Volatility | 1.26 |
Genius Sports' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Genius Sports stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Genius Sports' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Genius Sports stock will not fluctuate a lot when Genius Sports' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Genius Sports to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Genius because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Genius Sports after-hype prediction price | USD 8.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Genius contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Genius Sports will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0788% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Genius Sports trading at USD 8.78, that is roughly USD 0.006914 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Genius Sports' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Genius Sports options at the current volatility level of 1.26%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Genius |
Genius Sports After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Genius Sports at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Genius Sports or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Genius Sports, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Genius Sports Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Genius Sports' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Genius Sports' historical news coverage. Genius Sports' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.91 and 11.15, respectively. We have considered Genius Sports' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Genius Sports is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Genius Sports is based on 3 months time horizon.
Genius Sports Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Genius Sports is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Genius Sports backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Genius Sports, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 2.62 | 0.25 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 14 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.78 | 8.53 | 2.85 |
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Genius Sports Hype Timeline
Genius Sports is currently traded for 8.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Genius is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 8.53. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.85%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Genius Sports is about 12780.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.77. About 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Genius Sports was currently reported as 2.65. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.32. Genius Sports had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Genius Sports Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Genius Sports Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Genius Sports' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Genius Sports' future price movements. Getting to know how Genius Sports' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Genius Sports may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Genius Sports Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Genius price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Genius using various technical indicators. When you analyze Genius charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Genius Sports Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Genius Sports stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Genius Sports, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Genius Sports based on analysis of Genius Sports hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Genius Sports's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Genius Sports's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.25 | 0.22 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.89 | 4.49 |
Story Coverage note for Genius Sports
The number of cover stories for Genius Sports depends on current market conditions and Genius Sports' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Genius Sports is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Genius Sports' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Genius Sports Short Properties
Genius Sports' future price predictability will typically decrease when Genius Sports' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Genius Sports often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Genius Sports' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Genius Sports' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 225.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 100.3 M |
Complementary Tools for Genius Stock analysis
When running Genius Sports' price analysis, check to measure Genius Sports' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Genius Sports is operating at the current time. Most of Genius Sports' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Genius Sports' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Genius Sports' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Genius Sports to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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