Safehold Stock Price Prediction
| SAFE Stock | USD 17.99 0.60 3.45% |
Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4325 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.6123 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.6798 | Wall Street Target Price 25.0833 |
Using Safehold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Safehold from the perspective of Safehold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Safehold using Safehold's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Safehold using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Safehold's stock price.
Safehold Implied Volatility | 0.76 |
Safehold's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Safehold stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Safehold's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Safehold stock will not fluctuate a lot when Safehold's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Safehold to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Safehold because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Safehold after-hype prediction price | USD 17.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Safehold contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Safehold will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0475% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Safehold trading at USD 17.99, that is roughly USD 0.008545 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Safehold's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Safehold options at the current volatility level of 0.76%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Safehold |
Safehold After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Safehold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Safehold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Safehold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Safehold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Safehold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Safehold's historical news coverage. Safehold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.58 and 20.40, respectively. We have considered Safehold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Safehold is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Safehold is based on 3 months time horizon.
Safehold Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Safehold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Safehold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Safehold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 2.43 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.99 | 17.99 | 0.00 |
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Safehold Hype Timeline
Safehold is at this time traded for 17.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Safehold is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Safehold is about 9.223372036854776E16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.99. About 22.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.55. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Safehold has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.65. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of December 2024. The firm had 16:100 split on the 31st of March 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Safehold Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Safehold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Safehold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Safehold's future price movements. Getting to know how Safehold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Safehold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EPRT | Essential Properties Realty | 0.20 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 2.29 | (2.21) | 5.79 | |
| BNL | Broadstone Net Lease | 0.09 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 1.91 | (2.29) | 4.42 | |
| AHH | Armada Hflr Pr | (0.07) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.69 | (2.45) | 7.00 | |
| CTO | CTO Realty Growth | 0.09 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 1.67 | (2.05) | 8.18 | |
| SRC | Spirit Realty Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BRSP | Brightspire Capital | (0.01) | 8 per month | 1.35 | 0.02 | 2.70 | (1.90) | 5.63 | |
| AHH-PA | Armada Hoffler Properties | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 2.20 | (1.99) | 5.52 | |
| OLP | One Liberty Properties | (0.21) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.67 | (2.37) | 7.19 | |
| MDV | Modiv Inc | 0.04 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.55 | (2.88) | 9.05 | |
| GOODN | Gladstone Commercial Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.37 | (1.23) | 4.61 | |
| NXDT | NexPoint Strategic Opportunities | (0.13) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 5.19 | (3.92) | 17.57 |
Safehold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Safehold price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Safehold using various technical indicators. When you analyze Safehold charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Safehold Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Safehold stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Safehold, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Safehold based on analysis of Safehold hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Safehold's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Safehold's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.15 | 0.0291 | 0.0384 | 0.0364 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.34 | 4.48 | 3.61 | 3.43 |
Story Coverage note for Safehold
The number of cover stories for Safehold depends on current market conditions and Safehold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Safehold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Safehold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Safehold Short Properties
Safehold's future price predictability will typically decrease when Safehold's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Safehold often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Safehold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Safehold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 71.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.6 M |
Complementary Tools for Safehold Stock analysis
When running Safehold's price analysis, check to measure Safehold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Safehold is operating at the current time. Most of Safehold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Safehold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Safehold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Safehold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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