Napco Security Technologies Stock Price Prediction
| NSSC Stock | USD 23.94 0.30 1.24% |
Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.37 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.13 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.24 | Wall Street Target Price 30.8 |
Using NAPCO Security hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NAPCO Security Technologies from the perspective of NAPCO Security response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards NAPCO Security using NAPCO Security's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards NAPCO using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of NAPCO Security's stock price.
NAPCO Security Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in NAPCO Security's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards NAPCO. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of NAPCO Security stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 40.3651 | Short Percent 0.0664 | Short Ratio 2.88 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.8 M | 50 Day MA 28.3634 |
NAPCO Security Techn Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to NAPCO Security's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in NAPCO. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding NAPCO can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around NAPCO Security Technologies. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of NAPCO Security's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about NAPCO Security.
NAPCO Security Implied Volatility | 0.83 |
NAPCO Security's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NAPCO Security Technologies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NAPCO Security's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NAPCO Security stock will not fluctuate a lot when NAPCO Security's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in NAPCO Security to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying NAPCO because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
NAPCO Security after-hype prediction price | USD 24.46 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current NAPCO contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that NAPCO Security Technologies will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0519% per day over the life of the 2025-06-20 option contract. With NAPCO Security trading at USD 23.94, that is roughly USD 0.0124 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating NAPCO Security's daily price movement you should consider acquiring NAPCO Security Technologies options at the current volatility level of 0.83%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
NAPCO |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NAPCO Security's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NAPCO Security After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NAPCO Security at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NAPCO Security or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NAPCO Security, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NAPCO Security Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NAPCO Security's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NAPCO Security's historical news coverage. NAPCO Security's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.56 and 28.36, respectively. We have considered NAPCO Security's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NAPCO Security is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NAPCO Security Techn is based on 3 months time horizon.
NAPCO Security Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NAPCO Security is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NAPCO Security backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NAPCO Security, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.58 | 3.90 | 0.54 | 1.38 | 7 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
23.94 | 24.46 | 2.17 |
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NAPCO Security Hype Timeline
NAPCO Security Techn is now traded for 23.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.54, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.38. NAPCO is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 24.46 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 2.17%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.58%. The volatility of related hype on NAPCO Security is about 163.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.56. NAPCO Security Technologies currently holds 5.51 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.06, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out NAPCO Security Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.NAPCO Security Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NAPCO Security's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NAPCO Security's future price movements. Getting to know how NAPCO Security's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NAPCO Security may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UFPT | UFP Technologies | (11.75) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.72 | (5.43) | 19.83 | |
| OFLX | Omega Flex | 1.10 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.01 | (3.59) | 9.64 | |
| TRNS | Transcat | (0.75) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.94 | (5.03) | 19.28 | |
| NWPX | Northwest Pipe | (0.26) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.60 | (4.26) | 14.98 | |
| NRIM | Northrim BanCorp | (0.27) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.44 | (3.45) | 9.90 |
NAPCO Security Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NAPCO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NAPCO using various technical indicators. When you analyze NAPCO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About NAPCO Security Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of NAPCO Security stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as NAPCO Security Technologies, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of NAPCO Security based on analysis of NAPCO Security hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to NAPCO Security's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to NAPCO Security's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.006863 | 0.006176 | 0.003467 | Price To Sales Ratio | 10.23 | 9.21 | 9.67 |
Story Coverage note for NAPCO Security
The number of cover stories for NAPCO Security depends on current market conditions and NAPCO Security's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NAPCO Security is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NAPCO Security's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NAPCO Security Short Properties
NAPCO Security's future price predictability will typically decrease when NAPCO Security's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NAPCO Security Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NAPCO Security's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NAPCO Security's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 97.7 M |
Complementary Tools for NAPCO Stock analysis
When running NAPCO Security's price analysis, check to measure NAPCO Security's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NAPCO Security is operating at the current time. Most of NAPCO Security's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NAPCO Security's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NAPCO Security's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NAPCO Security to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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