Murphy Usa Stock Price Prediction
| MUSA Stock | USD 440.87 10.31 2.29% |
Momentum 41
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 5.054 | EPS Estimate Current Year 25.98 | EPS Estimate Next Year 28.6767 | Wall Street Target Price 512.625 |
Using Murphy USA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Murphy USA from the perspective of Murphy USA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Murphy USA using Murphy USA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Murphy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Murphy USA's stock price.
Murphy USA Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Murphy USA's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Murphy. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Murphy USA stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 494.5365 | Short Percent 0.0722 | Short Ratio 5.14 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.1 M | 50 Day MA 480.7606 |
Murphy USA Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Murphy USA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Murphy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Murphy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Murphy USA. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Murphy USA's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Murphy USA.
Murphy USA Implied Volatility | 0.5 |
Murphy USA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Murphy USA stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Murphy USA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Murphy USA stock will not fluctuate a lot when Murphy USA's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Murphy USA to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Murphy because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Murphy USA after-hype prediction price | USD 450.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Murphy contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Murphy USA will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0313% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Murphy USA trading at USD 440.87, that is roughly USD 0.14 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Murphy USA's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Murphy USA options at the current volatility level of 0.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Murphy |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Murphy USA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Murphy USA After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Murphy USA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Murphy USA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Murphy USA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Murphy USA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Murphy USA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Murphy USA's historical news coverage. Murphy USA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 448.57 and 451.95, respectively. We have considered Murphy USA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Murphy USA is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Murphy USA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Murphy USA Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Murphy USA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Murphy USA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Murphy USA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 1.71 | 0.92 | 0.17 | 11 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
440.87 | 450.26 | 0.20 |
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Murphy USA Hype Timeline
Murphy USA is now traded for 440.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.92, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.17. Murphy is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 450.26. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 52.13%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.2%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.28%. The volatility of related hype on Murphy USA is about 285.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 440.70. About 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.66. Murphy USA recorded earning per share (EPS) of 24.09. The entity last dividend was issued on the 24th of February 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Murphy USA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Murphy USA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Murphy USA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Murphy USA's future price movements. Getting to know how Murphy USA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Murphy USA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive | (2.28) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 2.31 | (2.41) | 13.30 | |
| MUR | Murphy Oil | 0.33 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.60 | (3.66) | 12.19 | |
| LCII | LCI Industries | 0.65 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.58 | (4.00) | 10.45 | |
| PAG | Penske Automotive Group | (1.87) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 1.97 | (2.58) | 12.10 | |
| MTX | Minerals Technologies | 0.17 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.80 | (1.97) | 5.89 |
Murphy USA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Murphy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Murphy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Murphy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Murphy USA Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Murphy USA stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Murphy USA, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Murphy USA based on analysis of Murphy USA hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Murphy USA's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Murphy USA's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.00455 | 0.004358 | 0.003572 | 0.003393 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.28 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.53 |
Story Coverage note for Murphy USA
The number of cover stories for Murphy USA depends on current market conditions and Murphy USA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Murphy USA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Murphy USA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Murphy USA Short Properties
Murphy USA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Murphy USA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Murphy USA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Murphy USA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Murphy USA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 47 M |
Complementary Tools for Murphy Stock analysis
When running Murphy USA's price analysis, check to measure Murphy USA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Murphy USA is operating at the current time. Most of Murphy USA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Murphy USA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Murphy USA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Murphy USA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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