Kar Auction Services Stock Price Prediction
| KAR Stock | USD 20.11 0.16 0.80% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
70
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 11 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.19 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.844 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.9595 | Wall Street Target Price 21.5 |
Using KAR Auction hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of KAR Auction Services from the perspective of KAR Auction response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in KAR Auction to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying KAR because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
KAR Auction after-hype prediction price | USD 20.39 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
KAR |
KAR Auction After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of KAR Auction at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in KAR Auction or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of KAR Auction, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
KAR Auction Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting KAR Auction's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on KAR Auction's historical news coverage. KAR Auction's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.18 and 22.60, respectively. We have considered KAR Auction's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
KAR Auction is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of KAR Auction Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
KAR Auction Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as KAR Auction is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading KAR Auction backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with KAR Auction, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 2.21 | 0.28 | 0.18 | 7 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
20.11 | 20.39 | 1.39 |
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KAR Auction Hype Timeline
On the 28th of November KAR Auction Services is traded for 20.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.28, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.18. KAR is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 20.39 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 1.39%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on KAR Auction is about 322.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.93. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.65 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (154.1 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 685.1 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out KAR Auction Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.KAR Auction Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to KAR Auction's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict KAR Auction's future price movements. Getting to know how KAR Auction's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how KAR Auction may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CARG | CarGurus | 1.15 | 8 per month | 1.27 | 0.17 | 3.59 | (2.48) | 7.36 | |
| KFS | Kingsway Financial Services | (0.22) | 10 per month | 1.38 | 0 | 2.38 | (2.51) | 10.73 | |
| DRVN | Driven Brands Holdings | (0.19) | 9 per month | 1.60 | 0.09 | 3.66 | (2.76) | 10.30 | |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive | (0.36) | 9 per month | 1.52 | 0.06 | 3.29 | (2.70) | 11.29 | |
| RUSHB | Rush Enterprises B | 0.90 | 8 per month | 1.68 | 0.09 | 3.36 | (2.78) | 14.10 | |
| SAH | Sonic Automotive | (0.58) | 8 per month | 1.80 | 0.03 | 4.60 | (3.31) | 13.17 | |
| ABG | Asbury Automotive Group | (3.72) | 12 per month | 1.69 | 0.01 | 3.95 | (2.67) | 9.76 | |
| KFSYF | Kingsway Financial Services | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 8.57 | (9.78) | 29.21 | |
| CARS | Cars Inc | 0.99 | 8 per month | 1.69 | 0.02 | 4.66 | (2.75) | 9.11 | |
| RUSHA | Rush Enterprises A | (1.45) | 10 per month | 1.45 | 0.06 | 4.62 | (2.61) | 11.16 | |
| PAG | Penske Automotive Group | 0.82 | 10 per month | 1.48 | (0.07) | 2.57 | (2.44) | 6.04 | |
| LAD | Lithia Motors | (2.82) | 11 per month | 1.59 | 0.12 | 3.52 | (3.18) | 13.35 | |
| AN | AutoNation | (3.42) | 10 per month | 1.91 | (0.06) | 3.73 | (3.00) | 8.95 |
KAR Auction Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine KAR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for KAR using various technical indicators. When you analyze KAR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About KAR Auction Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of KAR Auction stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as KAR Auction Services, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of KAR Auction based on analysis of KAR Auction hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to KAR Auction's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to KAR Auction's related companies. | 2020 | 2021 | 2023 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0204 | 0.0146 | 0.0275 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.1 | 0.85 | 0.98 |
Story Coverage note for KAR Auction
The number of cover stories for KAR Auction depends on current market conditions and KAR Auction's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that KAR Auction is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about KAR Auction's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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KAR Auction Short Properties
KAR Auction's future price predictability will typically decrease when KAR Auction's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of KAR Auction Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential KAR Auction's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. KAR Auction's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 109.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 93.5 M |
Additional Tools for KAR Stock Analysis
When running KAR Auction's price analysis, check to measure KAR Auction's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy KAR Auction is operating at the current time. Most of KAR Auction's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of KAR Auction's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move KAR Auction's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of KAR Auction to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.