Fidus Investment Corp Stock Price Prediction
| FDUS Stock | USD 21.08 0.02 0.1% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
68
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.54 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.272 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.106 | Wall Street Target Price 21 |
Using Fidus Investment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fidus Investment Corp from the perspective of Fidus Investment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Fidus Investment to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Fidus because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Fidus Investment after-hype prediction price | USD 21.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Fidus |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidus Investment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fidus Investment After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fidus Investment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fidus Investment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fidus Investment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fidus Investment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fidus Investment's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fidus Investment's historical news coverage. Fidus Investment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.32 and 21.76, respectively. We have considered Fidus Investment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fidus Investment is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fidus Investment Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fidus Investment Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fidus Investment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fidus Investment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fidus Investment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 0.72 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
21.08 | 21.04 | 0.19 |
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Fidus Investment Hype Timeline
Fidus Investment Corp is currently traded for 21.08. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Fidus is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 21.04. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Fidus Investment is about 1472.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.09. About 24.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.08. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Fidus Investment Corp last dividend was issued on the 17th of December 2024. The entity had 1:1 split on the 10th of September 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Fidus Investment Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Fidus Investment Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fidus Investment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fidus Investment's future price movements. Getting to know how Fidus Investment's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fidus Investment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GBDC | Golub Capital BDC | 0.13 | 11 per month | 0.65 | (0.04) | 1.42 | (1.26) | 4.60 | |
| TCPC | BlackRock TCP Capital | (0.04) | 10 per month | 1.14 | (0.01) | 2.08 | (2.04) | 11.22 | |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending | 0.23 | 7 per month | 0.98 | (0.02) | 1.50 | (1.47) | 4.68 | |
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty | (0.45) | 7 per month | 0.70 | (0.14) | 1.07 | (1.04) | 3.63 | |
| NMFC | New Mountain Finance | 0.27 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.93 | (1.11) | 4.41 | |
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | 0.20 | 5 per month | 1.20 | 0.04 | 3.33 | (2.20) | 11.85 | |
| OFS | OFS Capital Corp | (0.09) | 6 per month | 1.34 | (0.03) | 2.26 | (2.18) | 9.30 | |
| SCM | Stellus Capital Investment | 0.13 | 9 per month | 0.62 | (0.10) | 1.22 | (1.29) | 4.47 | |
| MRCC | Monroe Capital Corp | 0.06 | 11 per month | 1.21 | 0.04 | 2.29 | (1.92) | 6.38 |
Fidus Investment Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fidus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fidus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fidus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Fidus Investment Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Fidus Investment stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Fidus Investment Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Fidus Investment based on analysis of Fidus Investment hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Fidus Investment's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Fidus Investment's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.089 | 0.15 | 0.08 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.45 | 3.37 | 3.2 |
Story Coverage note for Fidus Investment
The number of cover stories for Fidus Investment depends on current market conditions and Fidus Investment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fidus Investment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fidus Investment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fidus Investment Short Properties
Fidus Investment's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fidus Investment's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fidus Investment Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fidus Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fidus Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 26.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 119.1 B |
Additional Tools for Fidus Stock Analysis
When running Fidus Investment's price analysis, check to measure Fidus Investment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fidus Investment is operating at the current time. Most of Fidus Investment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fidus Investment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fidus Investment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fidus Investment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.