Castle Biosciences Stock Price Prediction
| CSTL Stock | USD 30.28 0.16 0.53% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
44
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.93) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.76) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.3625 | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.92) | Wall Street Target Price 41.5556 |
Using Castle Biosciences hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Castle Biosciences from the perspective of Castle Biosciences response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Castle Biosciences to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Castle because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Castle Biosciences after-hype prediction price | USD 30.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Castle |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Castle Biosciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Castle Biosciences After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Castle Biosciences at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Castle Biosciences or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Castle Biosciences, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Castle Biosciences Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Castle Biosciences' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Castle Biosciences' historical news coverage. Castle Biosciences' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.93 and 33.43, respectively. We have considered Castle Biosciences' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Castle Biosciences is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Castle Biosciences is based on 3 months time horizon.
Castle Biosciences Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Castle Biosciences is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Castle Biosciences backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Castle Biosciences, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 3.25 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
30.28 | 30.18 | 0.33 |
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Castle Biosciences Hype Timeline
Castle Biosciences is currently traded for 30.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Castle is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 30.18. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.33%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Castle Biosciences is about 60937.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.28. About 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.92. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Castle Biosciences had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Castle Biosciences Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Castle Biosciences Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Castle Biosciences' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Castle Biosciences' future price movements. Getting to know how Castle Biosciences' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Castle Biosciences may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Castle Biosciences Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Castle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Castle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Castle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Castle Biosciences Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Castle Biosciences stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Castle Biosciences, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Castle Biosciences based on analysis of Castle Biosciences hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Castle Biosciences's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Castle Biosciences's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 6.21 | 6.77 | 4.38 | 3.88 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 46.62 | 45.38 | 64.44 | 44.02 |
Story Coverage note for Castle Biosciences
The number of cover stories for Castle Biosciences depends on current market conditions and Castle Biosciences' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Castle Biosciences is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Castle Biosciences' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Castle Biosciences Short Properties
Castle Biosciences' future price predictability will typically decrease when Castle Biosciences' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Castle Biosciences often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Castle Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Castle Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 26.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 243.1 M |
Check out Castle Biosciences Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Castle Stock please use our How to buy in Castle Stock guide.You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Castle Biosciences. If investors know Castle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Castle Biosciences listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.93) | Earnings Share 0.21 | Revenue Per Share 11.34 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.395 | Return On Assets (0) |
The market value of Castle Biosciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Castle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Castle Biosciences' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Castle Biosciences' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Castle Biosciences' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Castle Biosciences' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Castle Biosciences' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Castle Biosciences is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Castle Biosciences' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.