Exagen Inc Stock Price Prediction
| XGN Stock | USD 3.97 0.13 3.39% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
55
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.31) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.91) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.72) | Wall Street Target Price 6.25 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.29) |
Using Exagen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Exagen Inc from the perspective of Exagen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Exagen to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Exagen because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Exagen after-hype prediction price | USD 3.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Exagen |
Exagen After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Exagen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Exagen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Exagen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Exagen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Exagen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Exagen's historical news coverage. Exagen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.20 and 9.22, respectively. We have considered Exagen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Exagen is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Exagen Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Exagen Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Exagen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Exagen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Exagen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.63 | 5.29 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.97 | 3.93 | 1.01 |
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Exagen Hype Timeline
On the 30th of November Exagen Inc is traded for 3.97. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Exagen is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.93. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -1.01%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.63%. The volatility of related hype on Exagen is about 9862.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.00. About 30.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.94. Exagen Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Exagen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Exagen Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Exagen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Exagen's future price movements. Getting to know how Exagen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Exagen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FONR | Fonar | (0.14) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.15 | (2.97) | 10.84 | |
| BNR | Burning Rock Biotech | 0.35 | 3 per month | 7.80 | 0.05 | 16.01 | (7.67) | 46.14 | |
| SERA | Sera Prognostics | 1.07 | 9 per month | 4.58 | (0) | 9.55 | (7.60) | 27.67 | |
| OLK | Olink Holding AB | 0.01 | 10 per month | 0.48 | 0.04 | 1.58 | (1.37) | 4.37 | |
| LMDX | LumiraDx | 0.06 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 11.54 | (10.71) | 34.05 | |
| GTH | Genetron Holdings | (0.02) | 1 per month | 2.49 | (0.04) | 3.45 | (4.08) | 14.43 | |
| CSTL | Castle Biosciences | (0.87) | 11 per month | 2.71 | (0.0006) | 4.85 | (4.38) | 19.49 | |
| SHC | Sotera Health Co | 0.13 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.74 | (3.99) | 13.40 | |
| PMD | Psychemedics | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.53 | (0.19) | 0.87 | (0.87) | 3.46 | |
| DRIO | DarioHealth Corp | (0.02) | 10 per month | 4.60 | (0.01) | 9.72 | (7.00) | 27.55 | |
| BDSX | Biodesix | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 5.95 | (5.61) | 29.48 |
Exagen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Exagen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Exagen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Exagen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Exagen Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Exagen stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Exagen Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Exagen based on analysis of Exagen hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Exagen's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Exagen's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.019 | 0.0169 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.67 | 0.64 |
Story Coverage note for Exagen
The number of cover stories for Exagen depends on current market conditions and Exagen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Exagen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Exagen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Exagen Short Properties
Exagen's future price predictability will typically decrease when Exagen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Exagen Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Exagen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exagen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 36.5 M |
Check out Exagen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Exagen. If investors know Exagen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Exagen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.94) | Revenue Per Share 3.163 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.066 | Return On Assets (0.17) | Return On Equity (0.70) |
The market value of Exagen Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Exagen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Exagen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Exagen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Exagen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Exagen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Exagen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Exagen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Exagen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.