American States Water Stock Price Prediction
| AWR Stock | USD 85.31 0.06 0.07% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
48
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.117 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.58 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.02 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.28 | Wall Street Target Price 87.5 |
Using American States hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American States Water from the perspective of American States response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American States to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
American States after-hype prediction price | USD 85.52 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American States' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American States After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American States at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American States or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American States, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American States Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American States' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American States' historical news coverage. American States' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 84.33 and 86.71, respectively. We have considered American States' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American States is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American States Water is based on 3 months time horizon.
American States Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American States is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American States backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American States, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.19 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
85.31 | 85.52 | 0.25 |
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American States Hype Timeline
On the 30th of November American States Water is traded for 85.31. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.21, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. American is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 85.52 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 50.42%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.25%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on American States is about 493.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 85.29. The company reported the last year's revenue of 595.7 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 124.92 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 264.96 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out American States Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.American States Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American States' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American States' future price movements. Getting to know how American States' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American States may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MSEX | Middlesex Water | (1.30) | 12 per month | 1.64 | (0.02) | 3.16 | (2.35) | 10.55 | |
| SJW | SJW Group Common | (0.86) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.94 | (2.65) | 6.24 | |
| YORW | The York Water | (0.31) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.07 | (2.23) | 6.17 | |
| ARTNA | Artesian Resources | 0.20 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.36 | (1.87) | 12.09 | |
| CWT | California Water Service | 1.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.88 | (1.96) | 6.56 | |
| GWRS | Global Water Resources | (0.14) | 8 per month | 1.54 | (0.01) | 2.72 | (2.36) | 8.02 | |
| AWK | American Water Works | (0.74) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.78 | (1.70) | 5.42 | |
| WTRG | Essential Utilities | 0.48 | 8 per month | 1.11 | (0.07) | 1.88 | (1.70) | 6.96 | |
| CWCO | Consolidated Water Co | (0.53) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.93 | (2.51) | 7.56 |
American States Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About American States Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of American States stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American States Water, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American States based on analysis of American States hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American States's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American States's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0135 | 0.0165 | 0.0206 | 0.033 | Price To Sales Ratio | 7.66 | 6.96 | 4.99 | 5.24 |
Story Coverage note for American States
The number of cover stories for American States depends on current market conditions and American States' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American States is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American States' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American States Short Properties
American States' future price predictability will typically decrease when American States' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American States Water often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American States' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American States' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14.1 M |
Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis
When running American States' price analysis, check to measure American States' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American States is operating at the current time. Most of American States' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American States' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American States' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American States to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.